2 New NBA Plays

Game 2 Total & the NBA Draft

Earlier today I released an important new podcast detailing some changes coming to my content this offseason. I know I already sent out an email with the link, but I will continue to include it in my posts as we finish out the season. If you did not get a chance to listen, its a quick 20 minuter! Here is the show on Spotify ⬇️

I also have two new NBA Best Bets, one for Game 2 thats been staring me in the face since open, and one for the NBA Draft that I have been observing for weeks. This is a, “patience is a virtue” type of cap where I let the market develop a bit, as opposed to playing an early opener. My goals of these bets remain the same, I hope by tip off I have a better number than the consensus.

Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks Over 214.5 (-109 BetRivers, 1u)
I would call this the Raheem Palmer trick, but I messaged Raheem and he didn’t have a strong direction either way on this one. The capping concept remains the same; that the market has a bit of an overreaction from the low scoring game 1 and it is far enough from the previous close that it is worth playing. Game 1 took sharp late steam towards the over and closed at 217.5. It was a blowout early that sucked the air out of the building, so I want to scrap the low scoring results and play the total back in that direction, being a full 3 points different. I saw a video of the Mavericks shooting transition 3s at practice, if they shoot more 3s and play with more pace, this leads to an over.

I have a feeling this closes at 215.5, a full point higher, and I can grab -109 vig at BetRivers. Im in.

Alexandre Sarr First Overall Pick -165 FD, 1u risked.
Picking off a good price here. Open was -180, went up to -300, dropped back hard when a few reporters put Risacher as their #1, and now its starting to climb back up. I think this was the classic bait on the mock to make some noise, but ultimately end up with Sarr at 1 on draft day. Sharp books have this north of -200, and FD is laying a -165. I’m going low risk bc I know the Hawks have not brought either player in for their workout yet, so while this is a good price we may never see again, I understand the volatility of line movement draft bets.

After the game tomorrow night I will be doing BUCKETS LIVE! I will be sure to share the link and tune in to know how we are attacking Game 3 openers.