2024 NFL Draft Betting + New NBA Bets

I just released a banger podcast covering everything you need to know for betting the NFL Draft on Thursday!

I was joined by Fish Fisher (give him a follow @Fish_Fisher4 on twitter and he has a substack too!) and we started by reviewing a bit of the history of draft betting. It’s been a rollercoaster for bettors attacking the draft board! We also go over best bets, breaking down the drama around the #2 pick, talking about markets to attack and everything from specific picks to philosophical approaches.

Also a new batch of NBA Playoff Best Bets 🏀🏀

Knicks -5 (0.75u)
FRF System play with home court advantage in a raucous Madison Square Garden. This is also such a pivitol game in the series because if you study the schedule and rest splits, it is the least rest between games (Brandon Anderson pointed this out on the Buckets episode linked below). With Embiid having minimal rest + not seem fresh, look for the Knicks to pedal to the metal on these games.

Mavericks/Clippers Un 218.5 (0.5u)
I have been backing this Mavericks defense a ton. In this game, we had outlier Harden/Clippers shooting and Zubac feasting in the paint. Zu doing well in the paint is actually ok for an under position, if they make sets for him, its a slower game. But if the Mavericks do sure up their rim protection, and the Clippers shooting regresses, then there is also room for the inevitable Mavericks offensive progression. It wont look as good for clips nor as bad for Mavs, but I still like a small under.

Celtics -1250 ML (2.5u risked to win 0.2u)
Sometimes betting is about making your lay ups. Jimmy is going to be out for a prolonged period, I have no concerns of him returning for game 2. If Rozier does return, the number may move a bit, but the chance Scary Terry playing with relatively new teammates against the Holiday/White backcourt and leads the heat to a win feels minimal. The Celtics ATS will be an FRF play, and we had the rule of -15 being a blind cover above 52.38 on a -110.

Timberwolves -2.5 (1u)
The Wolves closed at -2.5 for game 1, and came out so much more physical than Phoenix. They dominated any minutes without Nurkic, which is not a good sign of the Suns to try and exploit a small ball weakness of the Wolves. If size beats speed, and physicality beats finesse, and home court is an advantage, then this is a Wolves game/series.

🏀 NBA Best Bets Monday April 22nd 🏀
(just so you have it, here is the list of all bets I am on and have given out for tomorrow)

Cavs -5.5 (0.75u)
Knicks -5 (0.75u)
Knicks/Sixers Un 210 (2u)
Nuggets -7 (0.75u)