5 Best Bets for Wednesday May 21st

Right now I am on a 4 day win streak and have completely swept the last 3 days. Feels great to hit these runs. A photo of my tracker is right below, if you need a coded bet tracker like this reach out to me or just comment on this post and I am happy to share a blank copy with you.

Tomorrow I have 5 best bets on the card, with action in the sides, totals & props market, and with spots in both the NBA and WNBA. Here they are with explanations.

Sweeping again is unrealistic, I do expect to be profitable for a 5th straight day.

1. NY Knicks -3.5 (0.75u):

This was sent out Sunday in the last newsletter post and was broken down on Mondays show that I did. I am not going to explain the angle, but rather just address current market. With a consensus -4.5 on the board, I would wait and play this pre tip. Theres a bigger chance this comes back to -4 than it does move out to Knicks -5. I would play the Knicks pre tip at -4 or -4.5, if it hits 5 I would skip it at that point, or play Knicks ML. Knicks is definitely the right betting side for this one per current market signals.

The pitch to join my whop group linked below is the results above which come from securing CLV like on Knicks -3.5.

2. MINN Lynx -9.5 (0.4u)

Welcome back the real McBuckets! Kayla McBride > Doug McDermott. The Lynx recently returned Alanna Smith and should get McBridge back for this game. After already beating and covering vs the Wings on the road, this is a strong spot to back the Lynx again. Current number is -11.5 with the health news, its more of an injury repricing than following steam. Also noteworthy is the WNBA has a larger margin of victory because of a larger talent gap compared to the NBA. I think this is also still playable, but go 0.25u instead of 0.4u.


3. Sparks @ Mercury Under 163.5 (0.75u)
▶️ 🔙 Sparks @ Mercury Over 160.5 (0.35u)

A Fiddle’s Middle, few things are sweater than hitting these. This is primarily an under play, as shown by the 0.4u of tilted exposure towards the under. Alyssa Thomas is a top contender for DPOY, and Satou Sabally covers so much ground with her size and speed. The Mercury are the sharp side ATS, which I think also draws an under correlation because they are down top scoring guard Kaleah Copper and the replacement options are proving their worth with aggressive defense. It’s just semantics, but if the UNDER wins and the OVER doesn’t - it means the middle does not hit but the bet position on the total in this game is still profitable. If I go 4-0 and this game lands at 155, to me thats another sweep.

4. Jalen Brunson Over 3.5 Reb (+130, 0.2u)
5. Miles McBride Over 1.5 Assist (+155, 0.2u)

One writeup for these two plays because they are correlated, but NOT parlayed. The Knicks are the sharp side and so its the OVER. The open was 220.5 in the total, and it is up as high as 224.5 currently. Every regular season matchup between these two soared over the total as well. I expect fast pace, a lot of shots and possessions, a shortened rotation for the Knicks, and these props to be worth attacking. My BetStamp Pro Odds Screen identified these both as +EV.

Another thing worth pointing out is that a lot of my props are played at Bet365 because they have the lowest hold in the prop market compared to other books. Low hold = more fair prices = often best price on the lines I am looking at. If you are in a place where you can have B365, I think it’s a must. I also think it’s funny my betting profile at Bet365 definitely looks like I am mainly a low volume prop bettor- when in reality I am a high volume spreads and totals bettor. Most of all, I AM SIMPLY PRICE SENSITIVE.

The next LIVE SHOW is THURSDAY at 10am ET.

If you want to get all the picks in real-time in a locked text chat, use this Whop Picks button above to access the store page.

The cost is $100/month. HOWEVER, there is an offer for 2 weeks free added to your account simply for leaving a review on the store page, AND you will receive an account credit for an entirely free month if we ever do have a losing month. It is as “risk-free” as any package in the sports betting space. The consistency in beating the closing line should lead to consistent results on solid volume.

The last losing month was November (when the public sides were crushing the NFL and I was betting sharp sides), and everyone got December free.