A FIDDLES MIDDLE IN CAVS BLAZERS
And another ELITE card for Wednesday
Yesterday when the lines opened for Cavs vs Blazers, there was uncertainty in the market as to whether Donovan Mitchell would #LetEmKnow and play for the Cavs. That caused a sizable discrepancy between books on the game total. Caesars, Bet365, Fanatics and BetOnline (an offshore) had 236 as the total, while Fanduel opened it at 232.5. That 3.5 point difference is enough for me not to care who is right or wrong, but to play the books against one another, and take the Under 236 AND the Over 232.5. If you understand the hit ratio of inside those numbers (or pushing on 236), vs the vig price paid to win one/lose one, its a +EV bet INSTANTLY. And the result paid off, a game landing on 233 without a single score in the final minute. A thing of beauty, +4units right there.
Another win on last night was Knicks ML -300. I wrote in the whop that playing -295, -300, -310, whatever best available was is fine, RISK 1UNIT, and bring home a small return. By tip off the price was Knicks -500. I think it’s so stupid people won’t bet juiced lines as straight bets. Betting a -300 that closes at -500 is INSANELY PROFITABLE LONG TERM. PROCESS LEADS TO RESULTS AND THATS GREAT PROCESS. Also just because a line is -300 does not mean you need to bet 3units to win 1. That’s content fodder to look pretty, not real betting. Be and $100 bettor and put $62.78 for all I care, good lines should be played. Juxtaposition, Kelly Criterion and bankroll optimization formulas would actually tell me to play way more than 3units - but I am admittedly conservative as a bettor. Knicks would win by 20ish, dominating early in the 2H and being on cruise control for the 4Q.
Lets run it back by just showing the entire screenshot of the Direct Picks Chat inside our Whop Platform. This is a locked one way chat where only I can type, I tag @ everyone and send an alert with actionable spots. This is what every pick for tomorrow thus far looked like (there is another Community Chat for anyone to talk about anything - except for jinxing bets in the 4Q).
Lakers/Pacers Over 232 (0.75u Caesars)
Lakers are incredibly efficient with Bron and Luka, Pacers push the tempo and will likely create a game flow with above average possessions. High possessions x efficiency = over. Thats the formula. The line is over 235 now, 232 was a hell of a bet.
Wizards @ 76ers Over 225.5 (0.75u DraftKings)
WTF is happening with the prices of these 76ers games? Way too low in totals. Recognize the pattern, continue betting early 76ers overs until the market catches up (which will come soon because this has been consistent game after game of 5+ point moves and that does not last).
Raptors @ Nets Under 218.5 (0.5u DraftKings)
I was capping these games with Drew and Ian in the studio for Wednesdays live stream and Drew said, Raptors Nets will go down to 216.5. He’s our Raptors guy, so that was simply a go with no other market info on a Raptors position. I watched him action it, and tailing locked in sharp people at the same number is very sharp by proxy.
Clippers -1 (0.75u DraftKings)
During said capping session above we were watching Knicks Mavericks. It was a high tempo game, OG Anunoby went to the locker room with an injury, the Knicks were on the front end of a B2B so we faded the Knicks and took the Clips. Hopefully Harden plays.
Nuggets -2.5 (-110 DraftKings, 0.5u)
Bucks get the news that Dame is likely going to miss the season. We knew the price of this game was -2.5/3, Jokic is doubtful but Dame is 100% out. This game is in the altitude in Denver in the midst of a Milwaukee road trip where they just lost on a buzzer beater to the Suns. Its tough times for the Bucks right now, fade them. -2.5 priced Joker completely out FWIW.
JOIN US AT 10AM ET ON WEDNESDAY TO BREAK DOWN EVERY SIDE AND TOTAL AND CURRENT AVAILABLE NUMBER. HOPEFULLY THIS HELPS SET THE DIRECTIONS FOR YOU DESPITE THE NUMBERS MOVING A BIT.
And if you want to get all the picks in real-time in a locked text chat, use this Whop Picks button above to access the store page.
The cost is $100/month. HOWEVER, there is an offer for 14 FREE DAYS added simply for leaving a review on the store page, AND you will receive an account credit for an entirely free month if we ever do have a losing month. It is as “risk-free” as any package in the sports betting space. The consistency in beating the closing line should lead to consistent results on solid volume.