A New Batch of NFL Futures!
I added 5 more bets, so here is Round 2 of my NFL Futures Portfolio
If you have not already seen my first batch of NFL futures, you can visit that post directly via Substack website. It was pre loaded before I opened up subscriptions, and thus was not sent out in an email form! I’ll link it here, so you can jump straight to it.
I also recorded a new podcast with Mike Kulz (@Kulz_Sports), Host of The Fantasy Road Show, where we compared a few player props with their fantasy football ADP. This is a must listen before your fantasy football draft. Whether it is buying or selling an ADP or prop, there are some clear discrepancies in the fantasy and gambling markets that are worth exploring.
OK, the good stuff is the 5 NFL Futures/Season long props I added last night. No more fluff, here they are!
Bears Most Improved NFL Team, +210 DK (0.75u)
The Chicago Bears are projected +4.5 wins when comparing last seasons result to this seasons projected win total. And to me, it feels like it has a lot of upside room for improvement beyond that. The bears had a top 5 most difficult schedule last year, and this year have a top 5 easiest schedule, the biggest flip year to year. They also go into a year 3 QB, improved offensive line, improved receiver weapons, and continuity on the coaching staff. These are all metrics that usually relay success, and at +210, this line is too good to pass up. The other closest team to do this in the odds is the Texans and Broncos. Both of these teams are projected +3.5 wins over last season. However, the thing of note is that both the texans and broncos are +3.5 wins, but line juiced heavier to the under. The Bears are projected +4.5 wins, with the line juiced towards the over. The implications of these lines show its more than a +1 game edge for the leading candidate, and a nice +odds to snag up.
Rhamondre Stevenson Under 1000.5 Rushing Yards, -130 DK (0.5u)
Zeke was just signed by the Pats, and while this felt like an expected move for the Patriots to sign a veteran backup, the line movement suggest there is still some value in the field. DK had this line exactly where it is before the news, at 1000.5 juiced -130 to the under. It remains right there. FD had it at 925, and has been dropped to 850. 150 rushing yards is a very large market discrepancy, one i dont expect to remain too much longer.
Justin Herbert Over 29.5 Passing TDs, -110 DK (1.25u)
This is a simple if Herb stays healthy, he’s clearing this with ease. At -110, that pricing suggest he has a way larger chance of getting injured than reality. Heres to hoping Herbo stays healthy and doesnt take a massive rib shot on a short week thursday week 2 like last season.
Derek Carr Over 22.5 Passing TDS, -112 FD (0.75u)
I feel the same way as above, this line is easy without injury, and Carr is one of the toughest players I’ve ever watched play football. The only reason to lessen exposure is because Jameis is still on the saints so they have a respectable backup IF carr does miss a game or two, it allows saints to linger on the better safe than sorry should he be questionable. I also have a lot of other Saints futures, which im sure youve seen from NFL Futures Part 1 :)
Zay Flowers Ov 500.5 Receiving Yards, -112 FD (0.5u)
Big discrepancy here between the fantasy ADP of Flowers and the Receiving Yards Prop. By a lot of sharp people in the fantasy space, he is being drafted as the WR to own on the Baltimore Ravens. We have an offense thats expected to be faster under Monken, 2 injury prone WRs flanking him in Odell and Bateman, a RB that isnt heavily involved in the passing game in Dobbins, and reports from training camp that he is ungauradable, and clearly involved in the offense. Instead of paying the high price of a fantasy ADP, ill just play the WR prop. His prop yardage is below the expected of both Beckham and Bateman! He can finish as the WR3 in this offense alone and still clear his prop margin.
*This line has moved so heavily that I did a 60% buyback on the Zay Flowers Under 625.5 Receiving Yards, (-112 FD 0.3u). This opens a positive middle where i can win-one-lose-one, or win both, but i cannot lose both. It negates injury risk, or the idea that ravens still run a lot, or that Odell and Bateman stay healthy and Zay is truly just the 3rd WR (with Andrews as well, potential 4th option in the passing game).