A Playoff Middle Opportunity!
Last night I was able to identify a mistake in the odds pricing and attack the board in a massive way. I will go through the full story and chronological thought process I was having, but there is new content to cover, best bets to organize, and hedges to (not) update. Let’s get into it all!
🏀 NBA Best Bets Monday May 6th 🏀
Wolves @ Nuggets Un 208.5 (0.75u)
Small slate for me with only 1 Best Bet. I believe Nuggets win, I gave it out on Buckets yesterday bc the total had dipped too far to still play for me. If you have no bets right now, I prefer Nuggets -5.5 instead of the consensus 207 on the total. But if you got the 208.5 I tweeted and emailed out a few days ago, then you are in good shape.
🎙 New Podcast Episodes 🎙
New Episode of Check Ball is up on The Advantage Sports Betting Podcast feed!
Gibby, AV and I did a full Round 1 Recap. Less betting, more fun hoops talk. The topics we covered included:
🙃 Say something Nice about a team headed to Cancun
🔥 Was it the coaches fault?
🤝 Instant Trade Candidates
⭐️ All NBA Playoffs First Team/ No Fun Team
Buckets Live/Betting Podcasts!
If you are interested in a betting preview for some upcoming Round 2 spots, I was on Buckets Live yesterday and on the Buckets podcast for Monday May 6 and Tuesday May 7th. Here is the link to the full youtube show, you can also search for BUCKETS wherever you listen to podcasts.
Hedging Plan: Easy update here, as of now I still have not initiated any hedges. There is sharp action on Pacers and Thunder in G1 it seems, so I’ll let it rock and see how it plays out.
Ok… the moment we’ve all been waiting for… a FIDDLES MIDDLE in an NBA PLAYOFF?!?! I did not expect this kind of opportunity in such a sharp market, but I found it and acted with the swiftness.
Yesterday afternoon I was watching Magic at Cavs Game 7. With a few minutes remaining in the 4th quarter and the Cavaliers seemingly having the game in their hands, I shifted my attention to watch the odds board. I wanted to be able to crack opening lines.
Fanduel posts first, Celtics -11 and Ov/Un 206.5.
DraftKings come online next, Celtics -10.5 and Ov/Un 208.5.
Immediately upon seeing that discrepancy, I knew there was value with one of them, but not sure which. Using patterns from previous games/trends throughout the league and playoffs, I assumed it would be an under direction. As I go to grab Un 208.5, DraftKings moves to 208, still 1.5points off Fanduel and so I still played it.
And then BetMGM comes online and drops, I KID YOU NOT, 216.5!!!! WHAT!?!?
My first reaction, holy guacamole that probably is a typo that should be 206.5 like Fanduel. I am RUSHING to hit under 216.5 with Thor’s hammer (5units). BetMGM takes my action, and drops it to 210.5. FD still has 206.5.
What I did next is called a “RE-POPPING” a line. I bet a large amount on the under, it drops, and I yet again bet a large amount on the lower line (5units). Thor’s hammer goes WHACK again.
Within seconds, I know I have to get my action in at FanDuel, where they have the lowest number available. At this moment, there are only 3-4 books posting lines on this game and we are minutes away from all books being priced and a consensus number being formed. This kind of value becomes non existent. So I hit the over hard as well (7units), and ultimately kept myself tilted in my exposure towards a max 3u bet on the under.
Going into Cavs/Celtics Game 1, I have the following tickets:
Under 216.5 (5u)
Under 210.5 (5u)
Under 208 (1.5u)
Over 206.5 (7u)
This would be such a massive hit in an NBA Playoff setting, keep your fingers crossed for me!!!
These tricks can be universally applied to any NBA game where you see such a market discrepancy in the totals. If you are interested in learning strategy to initiate it yourself, not just tailing picks be sure to read that twice and make sure you understand the principles of whats happening. Feel free to reach out with any questions.
