Action for the Next 3 Days
I already hit lines for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday!
Saturday was an easy breezy 1-0, +0.5unit day, hitting on the Celtics @ Heat under. They scored 33 combined points in the first quarter, and the live total never once got above the number I had. Truly sweat free.
First let’s review tomorrows schedule and then add on write ups for the new bets.
🏀 NBA Best Bets Sunday April 28th 🏀
76ers -4.5 (0.75u)
Clippers @ Mavs Under 209.5 (0.75u)**
Bucks @ Pacers Under 217 (0.25u)
** After Clippers @ Mavs Game 4 I will be doing an episode of BUCKETS Live with Matt Moore and Brandon Anderson. I will be sure to tweet out the YouTube Link, we will be reacting to games from the weekend and giving best bets for Monday’s games. Since we are early bird gets the worm people, lets start writing up and understanding those plays already. The 76ers -4.5 write up was sent out yesterday, but the rest…
Clippers @ Mavs Under 209.5 (0.75u)
The pricing in this series continues to drop, and yet I am not sure if it has gone far enough. Normally when evaluating a series where the game 1 total was 227 at open, and now by game 4 with all priors landing under, it is down to 209.5. But it is still dropping! The pace in this series is very slow, and the defense has been stout. There is a lot of isolation basketball which is slower to get into the set and less efficient. I am going to play yet another under and would take it at 209 or higher, but pass 208.5 or lower.
Bucks @ Pacers Under 217 (0.25u)
Very small play because I am late to the party. This took a big under move when Dame was announced as doubtful, and it seems increasingly likely it is just a plain out. I hope the Pacers come out with crazy defensive intensity because I am just not sure where the Bucks are going to generate enough offense. Patrick Beverly is going to get a large uptick in usage, I think looking into his individual stat overs at +money is prob a smart idea but I am not much of a props guy.
OKC Thunder -4 (0.75u)
FRF System play. -4 or greater ✅, 1 seed ✅, first round ✅. System is 5-4 this season, I should be taking my own advice and playing into it even more.
Celtics @ Heat Under 204 (1.25u)
As mentioned up top, I was on the under 205.5 and it was totally sweat free. Miami is dropping back into a lot of the amoeba zone scheme and closing out hard on shooters, forcing boston to put the ball on the ground and attack. The Celtics finally put a lot of on ball pressure on the Heat’s backcourt and it led to a bunch of unforced errors, turnovers, bad shots and long shot clocks before action takes place. It landed 18 points under and opened only 1 point below. Thats a fair reflection of pricing not to overreact, but also gave me room to still play the under. I played this first for 0.5units at Fanduel, and then tacked on an additional play because BetRivers left the number up too long.
Lakers @ Nuggets Ov 218 (1u)
When these numbers started to come online, there were plenty of 219/219.5s and then a lone 218. I picked off the straggler simply knowing PointsBet would take so much over action being at least a full point off consensus. Then I could evaluate how the other books moved, but there was also late over steam prior to Game 4 and it landed over, so I was excited to see the outlier be in this direction.
Cavs -4 (-115, 0.5u)
We are going back to Cleveland after two games in Orlando with a series tied 2-2 and home teams sweeping. I do not know much of what to make of it besides that I continue to feel Cleveland is the much better team. I know Cleveland had strong home shooting splits and tough road splits, and we saw it come true again here, so I feel confident backing them at home. I did not play any side for the two games in Orlando, which is good because I have been looking Cavs or nothing.
