April Stats, G7 Cavs/Magic, Round 2 Totals, NFL ROY

Clearly I work on the weekends 😂

April Stats:
In my email a few weeks ago reflecting on full season stats, I talked about how important it is to track all bets, categorize them, and be able to reflect based on bet type, time period, odds paid, etc.

However, tracking is not a one size fits all approach, it is a whatever works best for you and keeps you most organized. I get questions all the time like, “do you track your futures in certain months or all together? What if one future ends in may and another ends in April?” The answer I always give it, “do whatever makes most sense for you, as long as you are tracking it accurately.”

But to bring you guys behind the curtain, I track all my futures bets on the side and settle them as their own portfolio, and track April bets as game lines bets in that window.

That quick explanation helps me detail that…

April was a +3.09unit month, May has started -0.48units, and while it would seem to indicate I have done better since my last full stats post, I have not. I had to close out various NBA Awards races, and I had already marked Daigneault/Jokic as wins. This time I marked Maxey win and my 6th man portfolio of the year as an L. I also marked my Sixers Future as an L, while Suns was hedged with Wolves series and net neutral.
As of this post, I am +91.31units on season-to-date, slightly down from +92.55 at the end of the regular season, but still over the moon with joy about how the year has gone and possible upside remaining with some amazing futures still alive.

I am also getting plenty of questions about if/how I am hedging those Pacers 500:1 and OKC 120:1. So far, nothing yet. I am considering waiting until after G1 for both series to re evaluate, but I will be sure to post. If you hold these particular tickets, reach out to me or simply comment on this post and I will make sure I get that info to those people directly impacted by hedge strategies.

Newer readers- get ready to do it next year with our incoming Charlotte Hornets NBA Title tickets when this season ends.

Game 7 Cavs/Magic:

I have no bets on this game as of now. To me it is Cavs ATS or nothing.

In a first round game 7 situations, the data shows that backing the home team has historically been the most profitable approach. Game 7 unders are of course a loud concept in the sports betting community, but in round 1 it is only a .500 trend and is actually costly if you are blindly backing that idea (15-15 over last 30 R1 G7, 11-11 when it is sub 200 total per Matt Moore @HPBasketball).

The Jarrett Allen injury news is very hard to figure out. I kind of think he is closer to out than in, given the pricing of these lines at sharp vs retail books. But this is also a do or die moment for the Cleveland team, on the ropes with desperation, and the superior talented team with more experience. If JA suits up and I can get the Cavs at the -3.5, I probably do it for a small bit.

But also a GREAT time to reiterate that in Game 7s, there is probably minimal value to be obtained. 82 games of regular season data, 6 games of this match up in a row, home court priced in both directions, no rest or travel advantages… just because its a big game for Donovan Mitchell does not mean it is a big game for me as a bettor.

Round 2 Action:

Already cashed Under 210 Wolves/Nuggets for Game 1 and back to the well in game 2. I also grabbed Over 214 Thunder/Mavs. I will forego write ups because I will be on BUCKETS Live show today (Sunday May 5th) to break down both series, best bets for Monday, reacting to Game 7 and looking at the opening lines for Celtics R2. Be sure to join! I will tweet out the link, and it will be on Action Networks YouTube Channel.

Wolves @ Nuggets Un 208.5 (0.75u)
Mavs @ Thunder Ov 214 (0.5u)

Last thing then were outta here!

NFL Rookie of the Year

NFL awards are starting to pop up. Like the Bears, GIVE ME CALEB!!!

In my opinion Caleb Williams is set up for a ton of success in his rookie season. The Bears defense is improving, the offense added veteran dynamic weapons to help a rookie QB, the team went win now moves with a centerpiece on a rookie deal. Of course, the narrative around the Bears never having a 4,000 yard QB could get broken in a rookie campaign.

Despite 6 QBs being drafted in the first 12 picks, Caleb is a sure fire starter for week 1. I do not feel the division is as strong as the narrative. The Lions have been great for 1.5 seasons now, and Jordan Love for 0.5 years. They have a lot to prove.

I feel similar about Jayden Daniels and a +900 it is interesting, but that is a harder division (Cowboys, Eagles more proven than Lions/Packers) and he plays a more injury prone play style. Bo Nix/ JJ McCarthy/ Drake Maye/Michael Penix all may be bench players to open the NFL calendar.

You can get +250 on Caleb at BetRivers, most books are offering flat +200, and that difference is worth investing now and not waiting.