Cornering the Lebron 40k Market

Interested in a 15% no brainer ROI? Me too.

Sorry for the late email! Last night I released 4 picks from my twitter right as the Super Bowl ended, my eyes were exhausted from watching screens all day, and I fell asleep before sending out write ups and a Substack email! When I woke up, I realized I had some -CLV on my positions, and I would no longer really recommend them as bets, so I skipped the morning blast. Anyways, so you have them, my bets for the day include:

Mavs/Spurs Un 247.5 (2u)
Clippers -4.5 (1.5u)
Raptors/Spurs Un 233.5 (1u)
76ers/Cavaliers Un 229 (0.75u)

But the real importance of the email is to discuss the odds for Lebron to reach 40k Career Regular Season Points Scored. There is insane opportunity to be had.

Lebron is 157 points away from 40k, with 7 games remaining in February and March 2nd vs Denver being the likely game he breaks it. The next 5 games for the Lakers includes 2 back to backs, one 3-games-in-4-days set, and there is a travel component for every game. We also have the all star break sandwiched in where Lebron wil

l be a feature in Indianapolis.

DraftKings is offering odds on a Before or After date. You can and should heavily bet the -245 odds on Lebron to cross 40k “On or After 2/29 for Was Wizards.”

In conjunction, you can also bet the two individual games prior to 2/29 on Fanduel. Fanduel has +650 for 2/28, and +3300 for 2/25. Bet them all! If done at the right exposure scale, its a 14.5% ROI regardless of outcome.

This is cornering the market. This is not a true arbitrage because Lebron could score 157 over the next 4 games. It is insanely unlikely. He would have to avg near 40 points per, while playing in 2 B2Bs and traveling for every game. The chance Lebron scores 157 over the next 4 is sub 3%, and not even priced in any market for a exact game date.

Scale your bet as such!
81.5% wager on -245 On or After 2/29 DK
15% wager on +650 On 2/28 FD
3.5% wager on +3300 on 2/25 FD

This is an insane 14.5% return in a market that will process in less than one month. The investment bankers would have their mouths watering when seeing those numbers, and you should too!