Cornering the NBA Coach of the Year Market
Another $5,000 position.
I have been talking about it on my podcast, I have been hinting about it in my tweets. This weekend I made some major moves and cornered another futures market- the NBA’s Coach of the Year Award. This opportunity was created from having a detailed understanding of the schedule implications, being so aware of sourced information, studying the odds board and spotting a massive opportunity, & timing the market to perfection.
I will break all of it down but long story short, I created a portfolio approach of OKC Thunder coach Mark Daigneault and Minn Timberwolves coach Chris Finch for a total of $5,400, with an ROI of 50%, an implied probability of 65%, and a positive expected value north of 15% (and I think even higher than the numbers suggest). It is also a future that pays out on April 19th, a sub 2 month turnover. I saw the opportunity and crunched the numbers and knew it was a big position worth taking.
Lets take it piece by piece:
1. Studying the NBA Schedule: long time readers of my substack certainly know I am an NBA schedule nerd and often reference travel and rest disparities in my content. During the All Star Break, I studied every teams remaining strength of schedule, home/away splits (not only how many of each game, but when each team will be home for chunks and road for chunks- timing wise!), and I compared them to post trade deadline updated win totals.What stood out to me was twofold.
First, of the Western Conference playoff teams, OKC and Minnesota had the easiest remaining strength of schedule by opponent record. Both were going to be playing a sub .500 average opponent, and ranked in the top 10 easiest schedules remaining. The other teams in that group? Orlando, Brooklyn, Boston, Memphis, Miami, Golden State, Houston, Chicago, New York Knicks.
Next, Minnesota was retuning from the All Star Break with +7 home games remaining over their last 27, holding the #1 biggest home advantage remaining. When is the chunk that a bunch of them happen? 7 straight home games coming out of the break.
I knew the opportunity window to strike was brewing to combo Daigneault and Finch bets.
2. Seeking Sourced Information: Hopefully by now you know that I host a podcast (& are subscribed, rated and reviewed obviously). I also believe in the concept of having 2 ears but one mouth means listening is twice as valuable as talking. I listen to a lot of smart people around the NBA, and I remember recently hearing something interesting from Brian Windhorst podcast The Hoop Collective.
Windhorst is a Ohio native who came up the NBA ranks with the Akron Beacon Journal covering the Cleveland Cavaliers. If there is one reporter well sourced in Cleveland, its Windy. Well on a podcast in early February, they reflected on the NBA January Monthly Awards and discussed Cavs coach JB Bickerstaff getting Coach of the Month. The Cavaliers had won 17 of their last 18 games at the time of the recording, and Windy dropped a sentence noting the Cavaliers were struggling at the beginning of the season and it was known that JB Bickerstaff was on the hot seat with his job. Windy said- with just one more bad weekend he was gone- and then the Cavs turned it around.
Well I noticed Bickerstaff sat 3rd place in the odds. Was a coach about to be fired after 3 months of the season win an award after one hot month? No. Add in my obsession with the NBA schedule and I can promise you the strength of opponent during that streak was abysmal. Bickerstaff being 3rd in the odds at a respectable price was simply a false flag, and it was the reason why the other candidates provided such a strong opportunity.
3. Market and Timing
Generally when a candidate in a futures market is priced with too short of odds, it is an indicator that there is likely value elsewhere. In this case, JB Bickerstaff was +450 at both BetMGM and DraftKings, and +600 on Fanduel.
I felt the number on Fanduel should have been even longer, and the place I identified value was the two odds on favorite candidates having their price not be short enough. Knowing the schedule implications, and knowing this award goes to a team that vastly over preforms, I felt strongly I had 2 of the top 3 seeds in the stronger Western Conference secured, and the coach from one of those teams would get the award.
Denver was not getting it. Boston was not getting it. It was OKC, Minnesota, or Cleveland, and meh on Cleveland.
So I am sitting there on Friday night getting ready to make these bets until I realize the Cavaliers, Thunder and Wolves all play. As long as the awards odds stayed up at multiple books- which they did- I could wait this out and project how the games would impact the pricing. The Cavaliers and Thunder games were wrapping up around the same time, the Cavaliers were losing and Thunder winning. I struck big on Daigneault before the Thunder won and Cavs lost. The Wolves were still going to play the Bucks, so Finch was likely going to remain in no mans land. First bet in, I hit Daigneault +180. As soon as the bet was submitted, BetMGM closed the Coach of the Year market and it did not come back online for about 36 hours. Lol, got em.
As I am getting ready to submit my Finch position at +220, I am on the phone with a friend who informs me the Bucks went on a 3rd quarter run and are going into the 4th with a 17 point lead. Now I am back to waiting. The Bucks ML is -20000, the Wolves are going to lose this game, and considering the other two results- I expect this market to shake a bit. With a few minutes left in the game, Finch price pops to +250, and I strike. I put the max amount at Fanduel.
The Fanduel market moves to +220, and it shows my max bet is now around $100. So I go over to DraftKings at the +230 and finish there.
One last thing- I saw Daigneault moved to +140 on FD while it was -105 elsewhere, so I did it again. After I hit Daigneault on FD (and already had Finch), and Finch was repriced down to +210, I was able to go bigger than $100 more on Finch. So I made another $1000 move.
Conclusion: Daigneault or Finch better win coach of the year 😂😂😂.
In reality, I calculated a 50% return on investment, paid a 65% implied probability on something I felt had a north of 90% expect hit rate, with a sub two month turnover until payout. It was an absolute no brainer to drop thors hammer on the coach of the year market!
🏀 NBA Best Bets Monday February 26th 🏀
Detroit Pistons @ New York Knicks Un 223.5 (0.5u) DK
Miami Heat @ Sacramento Kings Un 226.5 (1u) DK
Skipping write ups for these plays after such a long email. Both were posted to my twitter. I anticipate no buybacks on either position, sharp sides of relatively flat markets.
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