Dear BetMGM, I gotcha 😉

Dear BetMGM,

Thank you for accidentally laying a 216.5 opening total for Cavs at Celtics Game 1. Using results based hindsight, it seems very possible you had the sharpest number on the board, as the game landed at 215. However, you done fucked up. By the time you posted that line, FanDuel was already up with 206.5. Allowing such a middle to exist in the market set you up for this beat down. In fact, potentially a simple one digit typo is the reason why FanDuel also took a licking on their over 206.5. Check your mail twice today, because I assume you will receive some strongly worded letters from John Sheeran and the kind folk at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sincerely,
Fids

For those that dont fully understand the contexts- I hit a huge middle and had a +5.5unit Tuesday night. Monster stuff.

Newly Added NBA Best Bets

Pacers at Knicks Ov 220 (0.5u) CZ
The playoffs and going through each series can feel like a marathon, but the Pacers make individual games a sprint. The Knicks have been willing to play in transition as well and can initiate before the Pacers defense is set. Although this is an abnormal pace for an NBA Playoff setting, its worth playing into when the number is not inflated. I grabbed 220 when 221 was starting to show. Small play because it is an MSG Playoff Over, but Knicks have been scoring more than expected regularly this postseason.

Cavaliers +13.5 (-109, 0.45u) BetRivers
Cavaliers ML (+650, 0.3u) BetRivers

Been talking about this a lot on recent podcasts, this is a Game Theory Optimal approach. Cavaliers took 42 3pointers themselves, and openly spoke they needed to lower Bostons 45 and wanted to keep them sub 40. Expect Cleveland to run the Celtics off the line, and give hope than another NBA team can just catch fire and get hot. Celtics are still without Porzingis, Cavs seem likely still without Allen but the reporting has been so strange around him I wouldnt be surprised for a sudden, oh hes back.

OKC Thunder -4 (-112, 0.75u) FD
In the moments I watched this game, the Thunder looked more poised with deeper talent (and healthier). I also think they have superior coaching. Lastly, this is a read on home court advantage. It has been 4.5 points at least for every other OKC game in the playoffs, so the books continue to say Dallas is better but away. Luka looked hobbled, OKC has such physical defenders to throw at him. Dort is a menace, plus JDub/SGA/Giddey/Chet all have size and ability to shade and help. Mavs need someone else to replicate Kleber’s hot hand from last series.

Upcoming Schedule

New episodes coming to The Advantage Sports Betting Podcast this week:
- Wednesday evening after Knicks Game slate breakdown for Thursday/Friday
- Looking into a Thursday strategy podcast about Tips for Live Betting NBA Games. If you have questions to submit, comment them or reach out to me on twitter.

And so we stay organized…

🏀 NBA Best Bets Wednesday May 8th 🏀
Knicks Pacers Ov 220 (0.5u)

🏀 NBA Best Bets Thursday May 9th 🏀
Cavs +13.5 (-109, 0.4u)
Cavs ML (+650, 0.3u)
OKC -4 (-112, 0.75u)