Every Tuesday NBA Game Reviewed
Also, was that a Cavalanche or a Heat meltdown Monday night?
We sent out a search party for the Miami Heat roster tonight, as it was revealed in the 3rd quarter numerous players were using lookalikes to fill their spots on the court. It turns out one quick patrol of the nicest beach resort in Cancun showed 4 matches - Haywood Highsmith, Alec Burks, Jaime Jacquez Jr all were spotted - and apparently this was all orchestrated by Kevin Love. Unbelievable. Heat Culture and coach Spo my 🍑.
I joke because the Heat were down 40 points before halftime in a down 0-3 home game with the Cavs missing Darius Garland. I bet Heat +9 (0.5u) and ML +310 (0.25u) prior to the Garland news, because I felt the line mainly priced Garland IN while it was a true 50/50. He would be inactive, the line would close down a full point at 8, and the people who know I care about +CLV as a precursor to good results, know I still would make this bet 100x over. The Heat just didn’t have it tonight.
If I were doing the live show in the morning (I’m not - but I am doing Action Network’s Buckets LIVE at 10:30PM ET Tuesday night), I would go through the games and say:
1. Bucks @ Pacers: Feel this is a Pacers wrap this up potential blow out spot, but it’s too pricey to bet into a Pacers -8. I wanted -5.5, the opening line was -6.5 and quickly pushed to 7.5-8. The total opened 228.5 and dropped to 222.5 - even WITH the knowledge of dame being out. These lines are priced out, the best advice is not to bet the side/total here.
However Andrew Nembhard Under 17.5 Points + Assist is an attractive prop. Available -120 Bet365, -125 BetMGM and ESPNBet. With the under movement, the blowout potential, the less need for point of attack defense without Dame - I think Nembhard can see a slightly reduced roll. I played it 0.25u - which is standard for my prop plays because of the smaller market.
2. Pistons @ Knicks: I called Knicks in 5 at the start of the series, but didn’t expect it to be this close. Shoutout the Pistons for the fight - I still strongly feel the Knicks have yet to put a good game together and when they do its lights out for Detroit. I am hoping -5 comes up, the consensus -5.5 is playable for me, but I think a 5 is more likely than a 6 to come back up, so I will wait and not rush to play a Knicks ATS -5.5.
3. Magic @ Celtics: I think the Magic are a good matchup with the Celtics, but honestly I want this series to be over. The Magic are so physical, they obviously aren’t winning yet, and I fear more Celtics injuries before it really matters. I had called Celtics in 4 - but I didnt foresee the injuries. Already Tatum and Holiday have missed games, Porzingis has stitches on his forehead, and Brown was a true game time decision and ended the season with some flares. I don’t want to bet Boston to cover -11.5, its moved down from 12 with the Holiday news, but I also don’t want to back the Magic. The only possible spot is Magic TT Over 93.5 (-109 is at BetRivers). I did not bet anything this game.
4. Clippers @ Denver: The best bet of the night is Clippers ML or ATS. I’m fine with the various numbers on the current market so the best you can find (-1.5, cheap -2, -130 on the ML). Make this make sense… Prior to game 1 starting, the series price closed around Clippers -120/Denver +105. Now we are four games in and the series is tied 2-2. The team that was priced as the underdog has home court in two of the final 3 games. In 95% of those situations, the series price would be closer to even between the two teams, maybe Clippers -115 and Denver +100. Instead, this one has gone FAR the other direction, currently the Clippers are -164 to win the series at FanDuel. The books are shading all the action to show Clippers are the side they project to win, and sometimes its pretty easy to recognize these things and side with the house.
Warriors @ Rockets game 5 and Wolves @ Lakers game 5 will be covered tomorrow on Buckets and I will send out another newsletter with thoughts/bets/links to the show.
The Advantage will very likely be back on THURSDAY this week. Make sure you are subscribed to the YouTube Channel so that you don’t miss an episode :)
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+59u NBA Season to date and +6u in Round 1 of the NBA Playoffs.