FIBA Finals Best Bets
Serbia faces Germany, and Team USA takes on Canada in the consolation match.
The first Sunday for Week 1 NFL is always one of the craziest sports day of the year. Not only are we back in action on the football field, the US Open always has its finals, and this year the FIBA basketball championships will be happening too. I don’t have enough eyes to handle this, but I do have enough units to distribute when I see smart plays.
Team USA -7 (-108 DK, 0.75u)
I have been incredibly critical of this Team USA squad, so its not just a back the homer moment. But the numbers right now speak for themselves. This line opened at 6.5, its being pushed out to 7.5 many places, and theres a 7 still not juiced to -110 available. We know 7 is generally the most important basketball number, so lets grab it before it gets above and unplayable.
Team Serbia +1.5 (-115 FD, 0.25u)
I’m playing the clear sharp side here. Serbia opens as a 1.5 point dog, and there are now pickems on the board. I’d guess they now close as a 1 point favorite. Fanduel still has the opening line 1.5 on the board, slightly more juiced to -115. I’ll take it and follow line movement and sharp action, but its a small play because my personal views back Germany. But do I play my personal views? No way! I play the market. I obtain closing line value, I go into games with a bet ticket with implied probability of 53.48%, but with points of movement on my side, an expected value that exceeds that number. Do that consistently, you will have positive return on investment. Book it.
Saturday afternoon I will be recording a podcast that reviews my final NFL Sunday betting card and I will give out 4 players who will definitely be in my DFS lineups. Be sure to subscribe to The Advantage so you can see that show come in certainly before Sunday Kickoff!
Have a nice weekend everyone!