Fiddle Knows Football?!
Betstamp Pro is available for 99c for the Super Bowl
Most people think I am solely an NBA bettor because basically everything I do in the content space is basketball related. False! I bet the NFL at the same +CLV and +ROI success rate as I do the NBA. The reason I focus mostly on the NBA is threefold.
1- I simply like basketball better and prefer to talk about the NBA > NFL.
2- The NBA has a way higher volume of games and therefore a significantly higher volume of bets placed. It's the breadwinner.
3- The NFL content space is just so saturated! There are so many idiots (bad bettors) trying to become NFL sports betting content creators, and a few of them are inevitably going to hit sexy long shot parlays, and often audience chases results not process.
This year all my NFL content was published at Yahoo Sports. I went 38-25 in my weekly “Early Bets” article - a 72% hit rate, average -115 odds, and +11units. In my whop group, my NFL picks were +12units this season as well. I crushed the NFL this season.
So yes, Fiddle does bet football at a high level!
In this newsletter I will give 3 Super Bowl props, each from a different book, and most importantly tell you about the insane offer from Betstamp Pro has going on this weekend.
Fanduel: Sam Darnold Ov 29.5 Pass Attempts (+108, +1.4% EV)
The Patriots have an elite run defense, and the Seahawks are down a key member of their backfield after losing Zach Charbonnet to a torn ACL vs. the 49ers in the divisional round. Kenneth Walker will get all the work he can handle, but Sam Darnold is going to need to throw the ball consistently for the Seahawks offense to matriculate down the field.
Across the market the next best odds on this prop is Caesars at -111, DraftKings at -115, and BetMGM is posting this line at 30.5 (+105). There is a clear market edge on the Fanduel line.
DraftKings: Longest Field Goal Made Under 50.5 (-110, +2.3% EV)
I handicap the NFL primarily using market ratings, making some small manual changes to them based, and getting an early read on injury data and pricing that in to effectively gain CLV. The NFL is an incredibly sharp market, so the concept that the market numbers are the backbone of my handicapping process is a large driver of my success. To give detailed football reasons for this prop would be disingenuous. Simply grading this number against the market shows a +2.3% edge. Circa is at -125 vig on this line, and every other book has a number 49.5 or 48.5. This is the highest number with the lowest juice towards the under. Snag it.
BetMGM: Jaxson Smith Njigba Under 93.5 Rec Yards (+100, 1.32% EV)
Betting the under 93.5 receiving yards for Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Super Bowl LX is a solid play because the New England Patriots boast one of the league’s stingiest pass defenses, consistently allowing low passing yardage totals that could limit a high volume target like JSN. While he dominated the regular season with elite production (averaging over 100 yards per game) and had a massive NFC Championship performance, Super Bowl matchups often feature heightened defensive schemes and pressure that cap explosive outputs from primary receivers. Trust Circa as a sharp NFL book? They recently dropped this line from 93.5 to 90.5 and put the vig -110 each way. Here you gain 3 yards against a sharp prop move and get it at +100.
BetStamp Pro’s Super Bowl offer is actually insane. I often talk about an odds screen being the most fundamental tool for high level sports bettors, and BetStamp pro being the best screen I have ever used. The normal monthly cost is $2,500 for a full subscription, but they are giving access to the NFL tools for just 99cents. By signing up anytime between now and Super Bowl Kickoff, you can use the NFL screen for the seemingly endless NFL prop market and get a chance to test out BetStamp and if its a good fit for you. Anyone who takes advantage of the trial will get the screen Friday, Saturday and Sunday to take your Super Bowl betting to a high level.
BTW- I do not get paid by Betstamp to promote their tools and offer, this is just genuine plugging of a great product because it is what I use on a daily basis and have a great relationship with the BetStamp team.
Access the same live odds and prop screen I use to analyze the market at a high level, for just $0.99. Built to quickly help you spot real-time price movement and line differences across 200+ books.
Unlock your $0.99 Betstamp PRO Super Bowl betting screen HERE.