Fiddles Middle Brewing

Winning Thursday, +1.1u, but nothing really to note. Let’s get right into Friday.

🏀 NBA Best Bets Friday April 5th 🏀

Kings @ Celtics Ov 224.5 (1.5u)
The Kings are on the second leg of a road back to back, but I highly anticipate all key players to play considering their place in the standings and urgency to win. The Celtics on the other hand listed Derrick White and Jaylen Brown both questionable, but they have not been resting players in bunches much this season. I don’t expect that to happen until next Fridays game where the Celtics play their final B2B of the season. I was able to grab the opening line for this game when there were already 226.5s popping up on the board. Since then, the market has reached a consensus at 225.5/226, but I ultimately expect it to climb again once the rosters are listed for both teams. Assuming one of White/JB play, this line closes at 226/227.

*FIDDLES MIDDLE*
Detroit Pistons @ Memphis Grizzlies Ov 208 (11u to win 10u)
Detroit Pistons @ Memphis Grizzlies Un 211 (11u to win 10u)

I called this a “Run dont Walk” opportunity earlier this week, when there was a 3 point discrepancy between a Hawks vs Bulls total. Here it is again. It is incredibly rare to have a three point difference between lines live at the exact same time. I feel like I can count the times I’ve seen it this year on one hand. When it does present itself, I immediately 10x my exposure, and bet 11u to win 10 in BOTH directions. My bet here is that the score lands on 208, 209, 210, or 211 to have a BANGER day, otherwise my max loss is only 1unit and I am not overexposed. I like to lay these thors hammer moments when I think a line is going to move a lot, and these opportunities to play both at the same time mitigate much of the risk in laying 10x a normal bet size. Hitting these make your bankroll explode, and they carry high +EV. The consensus line is now 209, this is PERFECT.

If you ever see two books be three points off in an NBA total, bet both HARD, and DM me so I can follow suit.

GSW Warriors @ DAL Mavericks Under 228.5 (0.5u)
See yesterdays post about how I am obsessed with the Mavericks defense, but I was thinking it was going to reach the point of being priced out by the market and recognized by the league. Well we may be there now. In this one both teams are on the second leg of the B2B, but both have full urgency to win for seeding. I expect full rosters and a face pace, but both defenses have been so incredible it was still worth playing into. I made it small just in case this is the one where the market has met its match.

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