First 2 Bets of NFL Week 15!
Last night was riddled with close finishes. Both Monday Night Football games were absurd! I was also on the bad side of two close NBA calls, as I had the Pistons +7 and they lose by 8. I had the Heat -3.5, and Caleb Martin misses free throws needed to cover the spread and put the game out of reach. I ended 1-2, -0.65u.
The Tuesday NBA board is hard to target because we have a ton of teams playing in back to back situations. There is uncertainty around who will play vs potentially rest or sit. I have no positions on NBA sides as of now. I plan to play the Lakers @ Mavericks Under 235.5 sometime before the game, but the line moved from 235 to 235.5, so I do not need to bet it yet. I can wait and hope to get a 236 or better. If I start to see 235s pop back up in the market, I’ll grab a remaining 235.5. The board is universally at 235.5 now. I will also be intrigued by Lebron under points prop in such a high total game.
On the NFL side, we enter the Week 15 market going for our third straight winning weekend. It is nice to bounce back after a rough early/middle of the season. Here are the two positions I have right now.
Rams -6.5 (0.75u):
The Los Angeles Rams take on the Washington Commanders with damn near the season on the line. They are healthy, rolling on offense, and take on a team going the complete opposite direction. I think this line closes at 6.5 or 7 and doesn’t necessarily get to 7.5, so I am playing it for 0.75u because I do not expect to be able to play it back around a key number. My one concern is the Rams after a tough road loss where the punt return ripped their heart out, and the Commanders coming off a bye. Had that not been a last second result, this line is 8.5 and being teased down, not being played at 6.5.
Bills -2 (0.75u):
Another clear sharp side developing here on Buffalo as the line opens at 1.5 and moves to 2.5 at multiple books. I’ll grab one of the last 2s on the board. I know the difference between 1.5 and 2 is a 6 cent difference onto and through the number, whereas the 3 represents a 22 cent value. If this keeps climbing up, there is big EV to be gained. The sharp side of the market seems to have figured out some of these elite teams, targeting Buffalo over KC and Dallas over Philly. I will play into this angle of the home Bills to get another big win over a great team.