First Batch of Week 1 NFL Player Props, Grab em now!

NFL props were posted, so I'm getting down action in a few spots.

I spent just as much time doing football prep today as I'll watch on a given Sunday. We had a large batch of Week 1 NFL props come online for the first time (there are certainly some actionable positions), I recorded the tried and true Week 1 Slate Breakdown Podcast, and I drafted my home team fantasy league! Lets go through it!

Slate Breakdown podcasts are, in my opinion, the highest value content I provide to my followers. I go through every single NFL game for the week and review:
- Line Movement
- Relative Key Numbers
- Betting Trends
- Betting Splits
- Where should our best bets be?
- What spots are major avoids?
- And a bonus dive into the DraftKings DFS board.

These podcasts take all the strategy concepts and applies them to actual game lines, ones we can get some action on! So lets do that…

FIRST BATCH OF NFL PROPS.

1. Marquez Valdez Scantling Ov 40.5 Rec Yards (0.25u DK)
   MVS seems to have one of the most stable roles on the KC offense coming into the season. He should play north of 80% snaps and 75% route run on drop backs. I noticed when the props first came out for this game a week ago, only his line and kelce’s were listed for chiefs rec yards. Its because we understood the MVS role. Now with Kelce out, the market is ticking this number up, and its worth grabbing. Mahomes Passing yards Prop came down 20 yards with kelce questionable news, I think he will be ruled out and someone needs to help Pat get to near 285 projected yards. This line is still at 40.5 on DK now and to me very playable.
   

2. Skyy Moore Ov 42.5 Rec Yards (0.25u DK)
   Moore seems to have obtained the JuJu role from this offense, which is a possession WR. This is similar to MVS, a quick reaction to the Kelce news. We’ve heard rave reviews of Skyy from camp, I expect Chiefs to run tons of 11 personnel in this game without Kelce, which means 3 WR and a blanketing Skyy Moore. His line ticked up to 43.5 at FD, 45.5 at DK, tougher now, still playable at FD. The indication that makes me willing to take a worse number still is that the spread is down to +/-5 for the game, indicating Kelce is on the wrong side of questionable, and they have 10 days rest after before week 2. Its early, Chiefs wont mess around and get him more hurt or dealing with a compensatory injury.
   

3. TJ Hockenson Ov 46.5 Rec Yards (0.25u DK)
   Since Hock joined the Vikings his target volume has been paced for 140 targets, 102 receptions on a season long scale. We just talked about Kelce, thats right below him and would be 2nd best tight end. Add in the fact that the Bucs ranked 29th in OPRK to TE last season, and Cousins is home in the dome week 1. I expect Hock to get 8-10 looks, and his ADOT and catch efficiency would show he crosses this prop line.
   

4. Deshaun Watson Un 24.5 Rush Yards (0.25u DK)
   This is an overreaction to the Browns preseason play using DTR in tons of option reads. The announcers would say, “this is exactly how they plan to use watson.” Not so fast, the 50 million dollar man is not the same as DTR whos a running QB and gadget mobile player. Its also preseason basic coverages and zone reads vs going up against Lou Anarumo with prep time. He is a mastermind at scheming for a particular opponent, and hes had plenty of time to know the browns were coming week 1.
   

5. Nick Chubb Ov 76.5 Rush Yards (0.25u DK)
   Until Watson proves himself to be a proficient NFL QB again, Chubb IS the offense here. In division home game, this should stay close and have Chubb running early and often.
   

6. Dak Prescott Ov 14.5 Rush Yards (0.25u DK)
   With Zeke gone, the cowboys now lack a true power back. Its why everyone loves Pollard in fantasy. For me, I foresee Dak’s workload a little rushing uptick. I think we see some short yard situations where cowboys with a strong o line and a larger sized QB, they tush push and let him handle some goal to distance running plays. He also always has the ability to scamper.

Interesting in my fantasy team? Heres a screenshot of the post draft squad. Leave a comment and let me know what you think! Go Virgo!

Important distinction:
*I drafted the players I bet on, I did not bet on the players I drafted
Remember, I’m loyal to my bankroll.