First Bets of Week 3 & Desmond Ridder Rookie Card Giveaway

Week 2 was fine, but certainly less kind. Week 2 currently sits at 6-7, -1.63u, and while I’m not one to get caught up in unlucky losses (because eventually it balances out with lucky wins), there were certainly some bad beats today that coulda woulda shoulda gone the other way. Whatever, moving on!

I am currently +5.92u for the season, and enter Monday Night Football with 3 Best Bets remaining for Week 2, all with positive closing line value and one added buyback. Let’s do the buyback first, and then take first crack at Week 3.

Original Bet: Browns at Steelers Un 42.5 (1.5u DK)
Buyback: Browns at Steelers Ov 38 (0.5u DK)

The main reason this took initial steam towards the under was because of a suspected storm occurring during the game. Bad weather generally causes a sloppier game that would tend under, being ground and pound focused. I’ve been checking the weather reports consistently, and as of now it says it will actually be clear. The line is going to stay low because of the amount of under action thats been taken, and the books wanting to get over money back in to even the handle. The line is probably a bit artificially low if it indeed now a clear weather game, it should be closer to the opening line. By taking a 0.5u buyback, I open up a middle with key numbers 38 as a push, 40 and 41 as wins. I know 40 and 41 are the two most common outcomes in NFL games. Middles have a 5% implied probability, but the numbers I am getting between these two shows my value is certainly higher.

Ok, lets get into Week 3 lines worth getting action on!

Giants at 49ers Under 45 (-110 DK, 0.5u)
In the week ahead market, this line was priced at 43.5. I checked the initial handle, and saw 78% of the money on the under. I considered taking look ahead action on this under. I also knew the lines for Thursday Night Football in Week 1 and 2 this season both moved sharply towards the under. I had all the signs this was going to go south. Then I watched the games, and although the Giants finished with 31 points, it was a lucky comeback where they had 0 at half, and lost Saquon to injury. I was very confident an under spot was brewing. Then the lines were reposted, DK popped it up at 45! Fanduel came in at 42.5. Giving all the information I already had, I thought Fanduel had it right, and DK would catch up to FD. I went in for a quick 1 unit on the Under 45…

I was wrong. Fanduel has been catching up to DraftKings, and the line moved up to 44.5, while DK kept it at 45 the whole time. At this point, I realized I had grabbed the wrong side, missed 2 points of CLV and had 0 on my ticket with 1 unit exposure. So, I grabbed ov 44.5 for half a unit, and worked off my original ticket by accepting 0.05u of vig loss to reduce my exposure to half a unit on this line.

The correct thing to do would have been to grab Over 42.5 and Under 45 at the exact same time for 1unit on each, knowing I would open up that 5% middle and have expected value higher than that with the outcome probabilities of winning 43/44 and pushing on the 45. Err, I’m mad at myself. Watch this land at 44 on Thursday 😈

Titans +4.5 (-110 DK, 1.25u)
My favorite bet for Week 3 so far is Titans +4.5. The splits show 55% of bets, 74% of the money, meaning Titans are the clear sharp side, and the number is moving to 4 at other books already. CLV is coming. We also have a situation where this is a partial look ahead line, because the Browns have yet to play, although the Titans have. The advantage (pun intended 😉) of taking the Titans now is because not only do they have rest & prep time advantage, they also came out of week 2 healthy and with win momentum. Theres a chance the Browns look bad or have some injuries, which would swing the line heavily. If the Browns come out lights out on Monday Night, I don’t see this line moving further away from Titans given that the handle is also 3/4 on this side. For gambling theory and logic purposes, this is a fantastic bet.

Ravens -1.5/Bills -0.5 Teaser (-120 DK, 1u)
Simple write up here, wong teaser legs. Fits the old Billy Walters theory of take favorites early in the week, take dogs later in the week. Well let me just take two clear favorites who fit wong teaser legs before the line moves against and possible pulls these out of wong territory. Ravens may play against Minshew, if Richardson does not clear concussion protocol, or will face a rookie QB preparing off a concussion with back to back road games. Brutal. Bills looked like they got a rejuvenated bounce back win, so I’ll throw them in too. I know what you’re thinking, wait, technically Bills arent a Wong leg because they aren’t at the 7 yet… well, why wait? Its at 6.5 now with 94% of the money on that side, with clear indicators it moves to 7, give me the better number now.

Eagles ML (1.2u to win 0.5u)
This is going to be a really weird write up. I originally went with another 2 leg (likely) Wong Teaser originally by taking Eagles -0.5/Bengals -0.5 at -120. Then started to see reports that Burrow may have re aggrivated his calf, and I thought uh oh he may be out for a bit and this line would move harshly the other way. So I quickly played Rams +230 ML for 0.5u, which would win me back my original wager, and reduce my bet to basically being an Eagles -0.5 ML bet. I would advise just letting this one go, or doing the teaser if you see Burrow going to be ok.

FREE DESMOND RIDDER ROOKIE CARD GIVEAWAY!
I have been riding with the Atlanta Falcons heavily this season. I am on their win total/division odds/and YES to make the playoffs. I have bet them in weeks 1 and 2 against the spread, and won both. Now we reward our lovely Falcons with a Ridder giveaway. He did lead a 13 point 4th quarter come back! Well deserved for Ridder to be this weeks spotlight!

To enter, simply leave a comment on this post and you are in! There will be more ways to enter and get a few possible shots at winning, stay tuned for those announcements. For now, just click this button:

Finally, here is an updated graphic for Monday Night Football with the best bets re posted and a 2 player DFS guide.