Four NBA Best Bets
Friday, Saturday, Sunday action all submitted!
Another night of dominating the odds board! I won in the NBA and swept my positions in the NFL Draft for a cumulative +2.1u. Despite losing the Celtics ML yesterday, I am in the middle of an awesome stretch. I go back to my old saying that a hot streak takes two consecutive losing days to break, and now with winning slates in 6 of my last 7- I’m hot like Hansel right now.
Here are my next four positions in the NBA Playoffs. All but the last one has been sent out/tweeted, but I have not included write ups. The last Sixers bet is new!
Pacers -4/-4.5 (1.5u)
The pricing immediately suggested Giannis was going to be out, and there have not been any indications he is getting close to playing. Thus I was not scared to bet this line for 1.5u, a bit more than a normal exposure in a playoff game. Despite a roaring game 1 for the Bucks, they came completely back to earth in game 2 and the Pacers controlled the tempo and game style. If this is a fast paced game, Milwaukee simply does not have the fire power to keep up. When we factor in likely better shooting from role players at home for Indy, and worse for Milwaukee, this was a line I had a high degree of confidence in to play and gain CLV. We also only had a 5.5 point shift from home court, which was 1.5 points less than average throughout playoffs, so I knew this had CLV to gain because it underpriced the home court switch.
Dallas -4.5 (0.75u)
This was a simple market read relative to the -4.5, my favorite number to play on spread favorites because 7/5/6/8 are the four most common NBA (regular season) outcomes. It opened at 4, moved to 4.5, and they started getting juiced across to board to -115, so I grabbed a -110 thinking this can even go onto the 5. The Mavericks were able to get what they want on offense and force the Clippers into tough offensive sets, and the home court has shown to be a huge advantage so far in the NBA Playoffs.
Celtics @ Heat Un 205.5 (0.5u)
Game 2 ended 111-101 despite nuclear shooting efficiency from Miami. When the price reopened at 205.5 and started dropping immediately, I knew it was clearly a sharp under because public would have backed the over sentiment given the barrage of 3pt attempts. I expect the Celtics to run the Heat off the line, trying to force them into long 2s instead of 3s and protecting the rim. On the flip side, Celtics fans should hope Tatum starts playing faster, but until he does these remain under spots! I even talked on the podcast how game 2 was the place to go over, now its right back to unders!
Sixers -4.5 (0.75u)
As I was typing up this email CZ changed this from -4.5 to -5, so if you want to play it reduce to 0.5u would be my recommendation. I actually got a message from someone who follows the substack about how that line was moving and how it was priced and I was like yup- you are seeing this correctly thank you I am also going to play it. So, I am kinda tailing someone else who is tailing/using a lot of my principles. Win-win, hopefully the sixers do too. Embiid and Maxey were too much tonight for the Knicks. The Sixers are guarding Brunson well and he played phenominally. If Mitch Rob misses any time, or if Brunson/Harts efficiency dips a bit, this series should swing back sentiment on Philly.
Reminder- I have family in town and spending most time away from work. Expect to hear more from me on Sunday