Four Reasons the NFL is SHARP, and my Favorite NFL Future
The Future CASHES in Week 1, book it.
The NFL market is so damn sharp. Here are four of the reasons why as we work towards a first down and give out a good bet 😂.
1st Down: The NFL is the biggest betting market. High limits and large contests invite the biggest bettors to seek edges for the largest scaled return.
2nd Down: The NFL operates on a weekly schedule. The larger time window between previous game and next game, on top of previously mentioned high limits, allows books to price gauge their lines with all the relevant information over the course of a week. Betting into lines each weekend is such an uphill battle.
3rd Down: Possessions are limited and scoring outcomes are factors of 6 (1, 2, 3, 6). Possessions + efficiency + scoring weight become easier to model and less variable.
4th & 1 (TUSH PUSH): Basically the entire schedule is priced, and look ahead lines are constantly up. It is more difficult develop an edge when sharp bettors have access to basically the entire season at their fingertips and can attack spots weeks in advance and price gauge even lines over a month out. Prop markets become a point of attack on a weekly basis with more variability.
There are PLENTY more reasons… drop a comment at the bottom on a potential 5th reason the NFL is so sharp and I’ll respond to you my thoughts 😎.
As an Advantage Gambler, I start immediately thinking cause and effect. What is the reaction from a betting standpoint when knowing I am trying to (going to) beat such a difficult market? The number one response is that when I do feel a bet has a clear positive expected value, I have to play into it with some authority. On the flip side, I also have to steer clear of making -EV decisions, like dumb fucking parlays! 🖕🖕🖕
So far I have bet 4 NFL Futures, and my favorite one is GOING TO cash during the 1pm window of Sunday Week 1. Here it is 🔥
Russell Wilson PIT Steelers Starting QB Week 1 (-750, DraftKings).
Who will start at QB only exists as a betting market for a few teams and it is mainly where rookie QBs are competing. In Minnesota, will JJ McCarhy win his camp battle vs Sam Darnold? Will Drake Maye start Week 1 for the Pats, or is this veteran Jacoby Brissett’s job? What about the Broncos- will it be Bo Nix, Zach Wilson, or even Jared the stud Stidham? It makes sense that these are betable markets!
For some bizarre reason, a line exists for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Let me be clear, there is NO Quarterback uncertainty in Pittsburgh. This is Russell Wilsons job barring an injury. Listen to beat reporters like Mark Kaboly. Listen to Tomlin in pressers. Understand the contract implications of the deals for both Wilson, and backup QB Justin Fields… Russell Wilson is the starter.
When Russ was cut from the Broncos, he agreed to a veteran minimum contract from the Pittsburgh Steelers. It was very clear he took the Steelers offer because it came with a starting position promised (and the Broncos still paying the rest of the guaranteed salary 😂). Russ had spoken to the Giants, Raiders, and was even linked to the Chargers and Rams. All of those jobs came as a backup or at best, a training camp battle with the incumbent starter. When the Steelers signed Russ, it was understood that #3 would be yelling “HERE WE GOOOOOO” while manning the helm for the Steelers.
🏀 Basketball analogy: if we could bet whether or not Klay Thompson would start for the Mavericks Game 1 at -750, id fucking hammer it 🏀
Let’s also consider Justin Fields contract situation. This is the last year of his rookie contract; he will need to sign another deal before next season. If the Steelers use Fields as the Week 1 starter, his next contract just got 20 million dollars more expensive annually. If Fields is a backup for the entire season, the Steelers can ink him to a Sam Darnold type of 10 million dollar annual contract and continue to develop him into a starting QB on an awesome deal. Perhaps Fields plays in injury relief or undergoes a midseason takeover if Russ really struggles, but making Fields the day 1 starter kind of acknowledges the loss of the future asset of Justin Fields on a team friendly deal.
The only way this is not Wilson’s job is if he gets hurt, and Russ does not really take hits on the field! He is so smart about avoiding contact. He also takes elite care of his body. If Russ gets hurt in training camp by an unlucky soft tissue injury or knee step, that is the risk here. I feel very confident that risk is negligible compared to a 13% ROI wager.
Betting into a -750 line carries an implied probability of 88%. I peg Russ’ chances to be a starter around 96%. I think this is about a +8% EV bet, and therefore, a strong NFL opportunity in a sharp market.
I purposely did not put units above because risk tolerance here depends on how much liquidity you need for the summer sports. I do not bet MLB, only WNBA/summer league/olympics. Those churn quickly and don’t see very high volume days. It depends how much you need for NFL futures and early NFL action. It depends how much you tie up in NBA futures… but this is about a +8% EV, a 13% ROI, and returns on Week 1 of the NFL where my betting weight is pretty light for a bit. My advice would be to hit it with some authority, and there should be at least 1-3units to place on this.
I will definitely continue to give out some free picks on the substack, but if you are interested in access to all my picks in real time, essentially in a text message notification, then check out the WHOP linked above! Be sure promo code “SUBSTACK” for $100 off the 4-month offseason or full year packages.
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