Going for 8 Straight Winning Days
& thats probably the jinx right there...
Quite the bounce back this week! Let me point out, just as I did with the 5 day cold streak, being this hot is also anomalous. In fact, going 5 straight losing days followed up by 7 straight winning days is an insanely rare combo. Imagine flipping a coin tails 5x, then heads 7x straight… whoa 😳
🏀 NBA Best Bets Sunday March 17th 🏀
Suns @ Bucks Un 228.5 (-109, 2u)
The league wide under trend has been well documented on the substack the last two weeks. Now add on the day game under trend. Afternoon NBA games tend to trend towards the under. Here we have a 228.5 at -109 when the entire rest of the board is at 228. FanDuel was already listing a 226, they are going 10 toes down into the under trend. I expect it to land there and have some playback value and thus will play it for 2u.
Orlando Magic -11.5 (1u)
When Circa opened this line at -13 and the entire rest of the retail board was at 12.5, I scooped up an 11.5 in an instant. Simple, easy, top down. The Raptors also stink right now without Scottie Barnes and having traded all their best players. The Magic have home court, talent advantage, coaching advantage, health advantage, and a sense of urgency being in a tight seeding race in the East. Also, don’t underestimate Orlando as a strong home court crowd.
Nuggets -2.5 (-115, 1u)
The Denver Nuggets are playing for the #1 seed, it is obvious. The Denver altitude is a large advantage in a playoff series where you play a very physical game every other night. They have the best player on the court, a strong and healthy supporting cast, and a coach pressing all the right buttons. The Mavericks on the other hand are a mixed bag on any given night. Luka has recently missed some time, they were hot and then cold, and they do not always show up against other top teams. Playing the Nuggets is generally a safe bet.
Nets @ Spurs Un 220.5 (1u)
This is a neutral site game! These two teams are playing in Austin Texas, not in San Antonio despite the Spurs being the listed home team. A new arena and completely new setting has proved difficult for NBA players to quickly adjust their shooting because the depth perception is slightly different. We also have teams that have lackluster offenses. The Nets have not scored over 106 in the last 4 games, and their most recent time over 110 was a loss against the Detroit Pistons. The Spurs are not over 110 in their last 3 either. If the whistle is not blowing in the paint, I suspect low 3pt efficiency and a dogged game.
