Great Process, Shit Results

I came into the night on a 7-0 win streak over the last 3 days, 4 consecutive winning days, and 5 bets going into Wednesday night that were ALL ahead of the market with strong CLV… Got reverse swept - that just sucks. Great process and handicapping, bad results, move on.

One best bet to play right now for tomorrow is MINN @ OKC OVER 214.5. This is available consensus across the board right now (214 at Circa), and I think this will close a full point higher at 215.5. Game 1 moved from 214 to 219, with heavy sharp over action. The pace was slow to begin, the first half finished with 84 combined points. The second half went over the expected total but the game still landed under. I talk about this often - I don’t care too much what happens in the context of one game. I prefer to information the market gave to me pregame as more indicative of the best way to bet the next game. Game 2 reopened at 213 and its climbing up, showing there has been an overcorrection towards the under. My model shows this at 215.3 and with current market signals I think 215-215.5 should be the expected close, and thus a 214.5 is a +EV ticket at tipoff.

I am going live at 10am ET in just a few hours to break down both Conference Finals Game 2s as well as every WNBA game that is currently priced.

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The last losing month was November (when the public sides were crushing the NFL and I was betting sharp sides), and everyone got December free.