Gridiron Gold: Betting Systems

Week 5 with Allen Eastman

Through the first four weeks of the NFL season, we have learned some very important gambling lessons and met some industry leaders. The Gridiron Gold series featured Gadoon ‘Spanky’ Kyrollos and SpankOdds in Week 1, where we reviewed the importance of an odds screen and how it is the most fundamental resource in sports betting. In Week 2, I introduced the greatest sports gambler of all time, Billy Walters, and delved into how he quantified a Super Bowl hangover for the first four weeks of the season (now heading into Week 5—remember to consider those game factors when handicapping Chiefs and 49ers games). In Week 3, I introduced Stanford Wong and NFL teasers, going well beyond the basic Wong teaser strategy of moving through 3 and 7. There are many more layers of advantageous strategy to add to teaser bets. Lastly, and somewhat unfortunately, I was compelled to bring in Ben Fawkes this early in the season. Fawkes provides data for all starting quarterback-backup quarterback combinations and how they factor into the point spread. With a rash of quarterback injuries early in the year—Love, Herbert, Wilson, Tagovailoa—Fawkes’ data informs bettors how much a line should move depending on the specific quarterback who is injured. In Week 5, we will turn the keys over to Allen Eastman to explore what a betting system is, along with a few examples for the NFL and a play for this week’s games.

What is a betting system?

Years ago I did a podcast called, “The Six Types of Sports Gamblers.” I should re do this show, as it got amazing feedback and people loved the concepts I presented. Going from most basic to most expertise, I reviewed: (1) public, (2) trends bettors, (3) systems bettors, (4) line movement cappers, (5) model handicappers, and the (6) house. While there is nuance to add, system bettors are the first rung on the totem pole I think be consistently profitable.

A betting system is a series of rules or criteria that, when all of them are met, triggers the action to place a bet. It’s pretty simple. Let’s use the most common one I play into as a baseline example, and then explore Eastman and some NFL examples.

My favorite betting system is called “NBA First Round Favorites.” I look for the following criteria:

1) The game is being played in the first round of the NBA Playoffs
2) The spread is -4 or greater
3) The team that is favored is the #1 or #2 seed in their conference

When all 3 of those conditions are satisfied, I play the favorite against the spread.

Why are betting systems good?
Betting systems help contextualize situational spots. They are often derived from factors such as travel or rest advantages, weather impacts, talent disparity, or even concepts like bounce-back spots, where there was an extreme outlier performance in a previous game from one team. The example above with NBA First Round Favorites pinpoints the talent disparity between a top-two seeded NBA playoff team in a conference and a team barely making it out of the play-in tournament. After going through the additional high-stress play-in, the 7 and 8 seeds go on the road to face a hungry, rested, and more talented team. That becomes a brutal spot, and the long-term data backs it up. NBA First Round Favorites that fit all those criteria cover north of 60% of the time with a 19% ROI, and this data goes back 20 years!

The last part, which goes back 20 years, shows the power that betting systems can have. Betting systems can be built and quickly BACKTESTED for efficiency. Serious bettors can either tail a known and well-oiled system or try to create their own by choosing a series of game factors to highlight, finding examples, and backtesting them.

Why may betting system be bad?
Betting systems often lack nuance for specific situations. Blindly tailing NBA First Round Favorites over the last 20 years would be incredible, but being aware of the specifics can help a bettor avoid situations where the criteria may trigger a bet that they do not actually want. In the 2023 NBA Playoffs, the Bucks were the #1 seed, but Giannis got hurt and was out against the Miami Heat in Games 2, 3, and 4. In Game 2, the Bucks were still a home favorite at -4 against the Miami Heat, but I chose not to back the Bucks at this number, as I had no time to adjust without Giannis and was going against an Erik Spoelstra-led team in the playoffs—no thanks.

Another way a betting system can lack nuance is in understanding the changing landscape of the game. Twenty years ago, the travel, hotel, nutrition, and recovery options for athletes were not what they are now, and a system may overvalue these impacts. Be sure to use sample size data that shows both short-term relevancy and long-term trends. Just so we’re clear, NBA First Round Favorites have still been profitable over the last one, two, and five seasons when isolated into those frames.

Allen Eastman and the “411 Betting System”
Eastman is credited with having one of the most successful NFL betting systems, called the 411 system. He had a series of factors that were weighted slightly differently, mainly focusing on recent team performance, injury reports, and correlated market line movements related to those games and news drops. Eastman never shared the full 411 methodology, and he passed away in the last few years; however, both the record of the system and the games played are known to the public. So, what do you expect a bunch of sharp bettors to do?

Yeah… they’re going to backtest, study, and try to figure it out! Between 2008 and 2020, there are 13 documented NFL seasons where Eastman’s 411 system was applied to 395 NFL games, achieving a 58% hit rate. SHEEEESH.

To the sports betting world, cracking the codes of Eastman’s system is equivalent to archaeologists translating the Rosetta Stone or exploring the tombs of Egypt. What we likely know is that Eastman’s 411 NFL betting system involved quantifying between 50 and 90 game factors for each game, assigning a point value to them, and then finding the difference in point values between the two teams to be north of 30 of his grading system points. We know Eastman quantified every player; however, the methodology for how he power-rated individual players is unknown and therefore no longer replicable. Like a true sharp sports bettor, he truly took his edges with him to the grave!

NFL Betting Systems we can use:

There are two NFL betting systems I like to back and find them still relevant both long and short term.

1) Betting Against Public After Bad Game: The criteria for playing this NFL system are simple: a team scores fewer than 10 points in last week’s game and is now taking less than 30% of the betting tickets. That’s it—TWO RULES! This primes for situational bounce-back spots in the NFL, where there may be an overreaction to a poor offensive performance, and the system labels it as an outlier. Going into Week 5, this applies to the NY Jets at +2.5 (-107).

The Jets are a system play because they scored 9 points in a dismal rain game against a pesky Broncos defense, failing to crack the double-digit margin in their previous game, while all the action is backing the 4-0 Vikings. The look-ahead preseason line for this game was Jets -3.5/-4, and now we are seeing Jets +2.5 on the board. That is a MASSIVE swing for a neutral field game after the Jets' poor showing in bad weather.

This system backs the Jets, and it is the third time this season that the system has been triggered. On September 22nd, the Carolina Panthers at +5.5 and the Denver Broncos at +6 both qualified and won.

Going back to October 3rd, 2003, this system has a 61% hit rate and an 18% ROI.

Coming in November and December, I will be looking for spots to back:

2) Divisional Unders System: The rules to play Divisional Unders are:
- a late season game (November or December Month)
- a closing total higher than 44.5
- two teams in the same division
- an outdoor (non dome) game

This system looks for weather-impacted spots between two teams that have familiarity with one another due to being in the same division, along with a looming sense of urgency as the playoffs approach. It has a 60% win rate, a 17% ROI, and is based on 311 situational games going back to November 2003.

Betting systems are great to be aware of, apply situationally, and use when you agree with the context. They are also very fun to create and backtest. I have had many people reach out to me who created systems after learning about them (when I did that podcast). My recommendation is to take the time to backtest your system rather than just starting to put money down on a system you think will work. These things take time to hone, tweak, and perfect, so to achieve the goal of developing an efficient betting system, you need to backtest it. Simply playing it forward may lead to losses, and it will take about two to three years of data to know if you are onto something.

The urban legend of sharps trying to figure out Eastman’s system is also a fascinating story. I have a feeling that if he were still alive, he would eventually share his secrets, and the ability to monetize content in light of the increasing attention that sports gambling is receiving may give him an incentive to let the cat out of the bag. Sadly, it will live on as a TALE and not as a system to TAIL.

For access to all of my picks in real time, check out the Whop store page above!

To save myself more writing and your inbox another email, here are my NFL Best Bets for Week 5 Sunday/Monday games. I have opened 4 positive middles with even exposure on both sides, one tilted middle with a Packers @ Rams Ov 46.5 played back 50% with Under 49, and 3 bets on sides. Bears ML is ahead of the market, Browns +3.5 is gone to +3 (the most valuable hook on an underdog in the NFL to have), and I am on the Ravens ML at -135 which is still the best price available in the market.

I am going into the weekend with 4 +EV high upside middles, 3 +CLV bets, and 1 flat to the market. I have no positions behind! In the longterm, that is unquestionably a profitable portfolio and shows the value on the whop package!