Gridiron Gold: Power Ranking Home Field Advantages
Week 6 with Robby Greerre
I always encourage discussion around staying stagnant vs evolving as a bettor. Evolution is necessary for progress, even in the sports gambling space. Stagnant bettors get priced out over time. It was evident this Thursday in my newsletter post where I talked about repositioning tickets and being willing to dump positions even in a changing game market. I referenced the football example that the recent increased offense efficiency on 2pt conversions has influenced late game play strategy. Teams down 14 now go for 2 after scoring their first touchdown in an attempted comeback, because if the 51% success rate holds - there is an increased chance to win outright. When it become common knowledge for coaches to employ game theory optimal tactics, bettors had to adapt and change their approach to key numbers and live betting situations. The 1 and 2 have seen increased importance, the 6 has seen decreased, and you should probably be a tad more willing to open a live middle in a 14 point game.
This got me thinking what other areas have bettors had to recognize changes in the game landscape that impacts gambling angles, and the number 1 answer is clear and obvious - the value of home field advantage has taken a massive hit in the last decade. When I started sports betting, it was a basic assumption that all home fields were of equal importance, and it carried the weight of a field goal.If you ask a boomer football fan whats HFA worth - them responding with “3” is like a -400 prop bet.
Robby Greere of NFLelo has delved deep into home field advantages and other angles which effect the value. He notes that from 2000 to 2019, HFA went from worth 2.9 points to a game spread down to 2.2. It is not just something I have noticed, it is not something sharps just talk about, it is quantified by those with models.
Why has Home Field Advantage decreased?
The most probable reason home field advantaged has decreased is because travel accommodations and efficiency has increased. These factors are inversely correlated. If the players and teams have more access to sleep cycle data, nutritionists, recovery equipment, as well as nicer hotels and stay arrangements, the body toll experienced with travel lessens and performance should be closer to peak. This week we are hearing all about the plans for the Bears and Jaguars to travel to London for the game. The Bears got there very early to get adjusted, the Jaguars got their travel delayed. Will it matter? Perhaps.
Quantifying Home Field Advantage can be complicated because there are so many extraneous factors that weigh into these situations. If we look at the New Orleans Saints home field advantage this week, it does not contextualize the 9 days rest for Tampa Bay, the 5 days rest for New Orleans, the first game of rookie and backup QB Spencer Rattler starting, and the Buccaneers being outspoken they are playing for Tampa Bay after the Hurricanes and spent time away from the city earlier than usual this week. Teams that travel to Seattle or Minnesota, two strong home field advantages, are also the longest road trips for teams - and multiple time zones might be crossed.
Ideally we can silo these situations into individual game factors (shoutout Billy Walters for the terminology). The sharpest of bettors have theoretical values for an east coast team traveling west in a 1pm game vs a 4pm game vs a primetime spot (as well as numbers to the inverse situations). They have theoretical values for a warm weather team playing in a cold weather environment, or if winds exceed 15 MPH, or if the temperature dips to a certain threshold. Perhaps a reason why home field advantage has decreased in its weighted average is also in part because bettors also have quantified these other factors.
Robby Greere at NFLelo has looked at a lot of these factors and has two deep dive explorations into HFA - as well as maintaining an updated dashboard of the records for the last 16 weeks, 3 seasons, and 5 seasons. Being able to identify HFA in time frames is important because we need to weed out sample size outliers. Greerre also notes a few other interesting discoveries from his studies:
1. Home Field Advantage is worth roughly 50% less in divisional games.
2. Games where playing surfaced is switched offers a big boost to HFA.
3. Bye weeks provide diminishing effects for Home Field Advantage, and may even be a boost for a bye team to go away as their first game back. Interesting!
Some Notable Home Field Situations
1. Miami Dolphins home bench is shaded, the away bench is directly in the sun. Miami knows how to use the south beach heat to their advantage. On really hot days, take this into account. The New England Patriots even have their own automated and air conditioned benches that they keep in a storage facility in south Florida year round simply to bring out for their annual game at Hard Rock. The staggering splits also show Miami to be a weak road team in conditions they rarely practice or play in.
2. Lambeau Field is still worth the full 3 points. Its part atmosphere of diehard fans, tough travel into a small city, and the playing surface is apparently harder and faster than most. A week on a tough Lambeau Field in a cold weather game is punishing for opposing players.
3. The Rams and the Chargers both play in SoFi Stadium, but the Rams have a moderate HFA and the Chargers a bottom ranked HFA. LA is a destination city, a place where opposing fans see the schedule released and mark the away game they are going to attend. Within SoCal, the Rams made their mark early winning the first Super Bowl in SoFi, and thus its more of a Rams town than a Chargers.
4. Arrowhead does not rank highly at the current moment when studying the last 5 years, in part because every Chiefs game seemingly comes down to the wire. However, away players are quick to point out the visiting team locker room in Kansas City is incredibly small and tight quarters and a bit of a shock if you are not familiar with it.
As a bettor, you should be adjusting home field advantage rankings as part of an annual exercise. You should contextualize it to travel, injury, and weather situations that simple opening line, closing line, subsequent result data may not show. You should be aware of teams playing surfaces and when that changes -grass is softer and slower than turf. Maybe a team is playing like crap and its best to just get away from booing home fans (think Panthers @ Raiders in Dalton’s first game after Bryce Young was benched - it was probably a good thing the Panthers were on the road). It is never a perfect science to be able to understand these factors, but they absolutely need to be considered, and if it gets you a half point edge on an NFL line, or helps you correctly identify the line movement direction from open to close, it becomes a very valuable tool.
NEXT WEEK IS MY BYE WEEK 😂
I am out of town and traveling for an event - there will be no newsletter updates next week. Gridiron Gold will come back Week 8… and there might be something known as the National Basketball Association starting. Expect A LOT of NBA content.
WHOP Access and Week 6 Picks
Below are my Week 6 NFL Picks released this week in the Whop. If you want access to all of my picks in real time, sign up for the text chat in the button linked blow.
