Gridiron Gold: Quantifying a Super Bowl Hangover
Week 2 with Billy Walters
Last week, we opened the Gridiron Gold series by introducing SpankOdds and exploring why an odds screen is the single most fundamental resource in sports gambling. This week, we turn our attention to the greatest sports bettor of all time, Billy Walters, and apply a strategy he developed that simply blows my mind—quantifying the effects of a Super Bowl hangover in this season’s point spreads.
While today’s focus will explicitly introduce Billy Walters, his influence is evident in the other strategies as well. Universally in the sports gambling world, we look up to Walters as the person who best knew how to beat the books at their own game.
I would normally include a segment titled “Who is Billy Walters?” but the truth is that he is a very enigmatic person, and many of his betting practices over the years have been shrouded in secrecy. Instead, let’s delve into some of the resources we can use to learn more about him.
Resources to learn about Billy Walters:
1. 60 Minutes Segment
In 2011, Billy Walters appeared in a 15-minute feature segment on a Sunday episode of CBS’s 60 Minutes. Looking back, I wonder why Walters agreed to this appearance. Regardless, this was my first exposure to him, and I have watched the video clip 100 times in an effort to glean whatever I could. At first glance, it may not seem to reveal much, but upon closer listening and understanding, there are a few key takeaways.
Walters explains how sometimes he will place bluff bets. This means he bets on one side of a line just to move the number to where he actually wants it, only to bet twice as hard the other way. At first, my takeaway was: Wow, this guy’s numbers are so good he knows where the games are going to land. NOPE! The real reason for this strategy, I would later learn, is that over a large sample size some numbers are worth significantly more than the standard vig price associated with them. Billy shows by example that by paying the extra vig to get the better number, you are actually saving money and creating a +EV (positive expected value) situation.
We also learn two other key components of sports betting from that moment. The first is that the maximum amount, or “limit,” you can bet on a particular game increases as the week goes by. The reason Walters can essentially manipulate and influence the market to where he wants it is that he is betting the maximum amount allowed early in the week. This early action is seen by the casinos as serious, prompting them to move the line. As the week progresses, injury reports emerge, practice and press conference clips surface, deeper film study is done to analyze play styles, and the books receive action they can handle, which indicates where bets are ultimately going to come in. This is all part of gauging the market, but really Walters' initial position was a bluff. The line will move to where he truly wants it, the limits increase because the book gains confidence, and suddenly the real hammer comes in, twice as hard, in the opposite direction. Incredible! Imagine being a sportsbook trader working the lines for a game only to be tricked by Walters, making your position as the house vulnerable... the ultimate “gotcha!” moment. 😂
The second takeaway from Walters moving the line with a bluff bet is that it illustrates how betting lines primarily move based on where the most respected action is. The business model of sportsbooks assumes they want a 50/50 handle on every game and simply collect the vig as their house tax. This is true in theory but not always in reality. There are many nuances to line movement, and sometimes the line will move independently of the handle or liability on one side of a bet. Recognizing these situations can be valuable for bettors and can introduce concepts such as Reverse Line Movement, where you can identify when the book is willing to take on risk in a game and position yourself accordingly.
2. The Joe Rogan Experience Podcast
Billy Walters started making public appearances to promote a book he was releasing. He appeared on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast, which is worth mentioning as a resource because it features a two-and-a-half-hour conversation with a man who is notoriously quiet with his words but loud in his actions. You learn more about his life and backstory, hearing it in his voice rather than reading it in the book, and gain insights into some of his tactics for the most basic elements of sports gambling. The most prominent takeaway was that he had people collecting local newspapers from all over the country during the week leading up to football games, scouring them for key words that could indicate betting action. He believed that local reporters knew the team best, and certain phrases could signal specific bets. For example, a quote from a coach's interview suggesting a run-heavy game could lead to a bet on the under. Walters also hints at using technology to search for these indicators in the internet era. It’s clear that Walters was very early in integrating artificial intelligence to trigger betting alerts.
3. Gambler: Secrets From a Life at Risk
Right before the 2023 NFL season kicked off, Billy Walters published a book called Gambler: Secrets from a Life at Risk. It is partly an autobiography and partly a sports handicapping tutorial. For the first time ever, I was able to learn about how Billy Walters reached his level of success. He details his nights at pool halls as a pool shark, betting on the golf course, going broke time and time again, and eventually figuring it all out. He includes two chapters near the end, titled "Master Class" and "Advanced Master Class."
I remember hearing about the book's release and immediately preordering a hard copy on Amazon to arrive on the day it was available. Knowing what I was about to get my hands on, 12 years after seeing that 60 Minutes clip, I was flooded with excitement. I checked the mailbox regularly a few days early. I even went to my local Barnes & Noble to see if they might have any in stock, just in case the delivery didn’t show up on time. The book arrived as scheduled, and as soon as I opened it, I skipped right to Chapter 21. With just two weeks before the 2023 NFL season, I suddenly had Billy Walters’ insights on field conditions, bye weeks, travel distances, weather factors, and more. I was mind-blown, but one thing stood out that I did not expect: “Super Bowl Teams” was listed in bold between “Travel Distance” and “Bye.” What on earth does this mean?
The next four lines in the book quantify the effect of playing in last year’s Super Bowl as it relates to point spreads for games in Weeks 1-4 of the following year.
We are going to go over what his information shows and apply it to this year, but take a moment to consider this: a “Super Bowl Hangover,” which might seem as media drama as it gets, is actually real. It is so real that the best sports bettor of all time quantified its impacts with data and uses it as a factor when betting hundreds of thousands of dollars.
In the "Advanced Master Class" chapter, Billy lists a number of what he calls “Game Factors.” Each game factor has a numerical value associated with it. According to his principles, you break down all elements of the game factors and identify the applicable variables. You then take the numerical values of these factors, find their sum, and divide by 5. This total number is then used to adjust the point spread dictated by simple team strength power ratings.
Bleh, that was a complicated way of getting to the point. Walters explains that the reigning Super Bowl champion starts the following season with +4 game factor points in the first game and +2 game factor points in weeks 2-4. Conversely, the Super Bowl loser gives +4 game factor points to their opponent in week 1 and +2 game factor points to their opponent in weeks 2-4.
In a vacuum, Walters shows that a Super Bowl win is worth 0.8 points for the home team in Week 1 (the Super Bowl winner will be playing at home) and that the reigning champs maintain a 0.4-point edge in the next three weeks. The Super Bowl loser gives up 0.8 points in Week 1 and 0.4 points in the spread for the following three weeks. Last year, the Kansas City Chiefs beat the San Francisco 49ers. Let’s evaluate each of these teams' first two games and how the lines have moved.
Kansas City Chiefs
In Week 1, the Chiefs opened as 2.5-point favorites and closed at -3. While it’s impossible to determine exactly how the Super Bowl boost factors into the opening line, movement, or closing line, the movement did favor the Super Bowl-winning team in Game 1, and the results aligned with a Chiefs cover. In Week 2, the Chiefs opened as 4-point favorites and are now -5.5/-6. A large part of this adjustment is likely due to the Bengals being both disappointing and banged up early in the year, but once again, the line movement supports the early-season Chiefs. The Chiefs had a lookahead line of -3 against the Falcons for Week 3. I would recommend checking if that line is still available, as it may also move off a key number and follow this pattern.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers' early-season line movement followed the same patterns. They opened as 5.5-point favorites against the Jets in Week 1 and closed at -3.5. In Week 2, they opened at -6 or above and are now universally in the 4-5 range, often referred to as the “Vegas zone.” The 49ers ended up covering in Week 1, defying the data and trends, marking just the 7th time in the last 25 years that the Super Bowl loser covered in Week 1. This week, there is action coming in on the Minnesota Vikings. Despite it being a sharp spot, I’m going to skip that personally. I can’t get behind Sam Darnold facing the team he was a backup for last season, and I missed getting on the right side of the +6.
Over the next two weeks, or in future years, use this information right when the markets open. We have seen the Chiefs' side take action in Weeks 1, 2, and very likely 3. We have also seen the opposing side take action against the 49ers in Weeks 1 and 2. If getting the best side of the number is so important, if beating the closing line is so crucial, and if setting up these profitable positions is key to success, then using this strategy should be fruitful in gaining CLV and achieving +EV positions.
In my opinion, the reason why a Super Bowl Hangover is real is primarily twofold:
The following year, every team views you as stiff competition and gets in a little extra practice, film study, and recovery sessions. The focus of your opponents is higher and competition is sharper.
Pat Riley’s “Disease of More.” Riley believes that team success leads individuals to want more for themselves, which ultimately detracts from long-term team goals. In this case, role players may seek bigger opportunities and contracts, coordinators may seek head gigs, and the talent on the edges might not be as strong due. I do not like that Riley calls it the Disease of More—because players should take the money while they can—but the sentiment holds true that team success makes it harder to replicate. In the NFL, we now have it quantified!