Gridiron Gold: The Point Spread Value of Every QB
Week 4 with Ben Fawkes
In Week 3, we were introduced to Stanford Wong and did a deep dive into his strategies for optimally playing NFL teaser bets. Wong details that crossing through the NFL key numbers of 3 and 7 is essential for deriving value. He also introduces other advantageous angles, such as pairing legs in different time windows, using teasers on lines with increased vigorish to reduce the price, and comparing totals to gauge the value of the points in a given game. We concluded the article by stating that the best teaser bet on the slate was teasing the Bengals’ -7.5 spread down to -1.5 and the Chargers’ +2.5 spread up to +8.5.
What I did not expect was that Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert would aggravate his ankle sprain and be pulled from the game. The Chargers ended up losing by 10 and failed to cover the +8.5, largely because their best player went out! Sadly, quarterback injuries have been too common in the NFL this season as we reach Week 4.
So far this season, Russell Wilson was announced as the Pittsburgh Steelers' starter but got injured before Week 1. Jordan Love for the Packers was hurt during Week 1, Tua Tagovailoa in Week 2, and Bryce Young was benched for Andy Dalton in Week 3. As we head into Week 4, we’ve been keeping an eye on the news regarding Jordan Love’s return and Justin Herbert’s availability.
From a betting perspective, it’s clear that quarterbacks are the number one factor in driving the price for NFL games. They have an outsized impact on the game due to their role in calling plays (and possibly rerouting them), organizing protections, managing the clock, and delivering the football to the right spot on nearly every down.
So, how do we price a game when a quarterback is out? How can we forecast the impact of a backup QB? Not all starting quarterbacks are worth the same amount, and the strength of the backup varies by team. How can we properly forecast a line move based on the change of starter? Likewise, once the move is announced and official, and once the betting line has taken action, how can we evaluate whether the movement was insufficient, just right, or too much?
To help answer these questions, let me introduce Ben Fawkes. Fawkes is a writer who has been covering the sports betting industry for nearly 15 years. Since 2010, he has contributed as a writer for ESPN, CBS Sports, and, most importantly, has an awesome Substack newsletter. Fawkes has developed relationships with top-tier sharp bettors, sportsbooks, and oddsmakers themselves. He finds himself in the middle of these two competing groups and has carved out a niche delivering content that bridges the gap.
In 2018, while at ESPN, Fawkes, along with Doug Kezirian, began reaching out to various oddsmakers early in the summer to survey their data regarding quarterback value relative to point spreads. The process is fairly simple:
1. Ask the oddsmakers to provide the value of every starting QB relative to their current backup.
2. Compile the data into an average.
3. Return the average data to each individual bookmaker so they can see where they differ from the consensus of other books.
4. Publish a consensus ranking for sports bettors to understand the average expected point spread value of each individual QB situation.
This approach benefits all parties involved! Sportsbooks and casinos can learn which QB tandems they are too high or too low on compared to their competition, and bettors gain valuable insight to track QB news and line movements. For someone like me, who studies market moves, having information from the books on the expected price of these changes is immensely helpful. It removes the uncertainty of constantly questioning whether a line move was too much or not enough. Even if I ran a model (which I don’t), I would use Ben’s list to ensure my model aligns with these prices because the most valuable models can accurately forecast the closing line and direction of movement.
Ben Fawkes has continued this process over the years and now releases an annual ranked list of all the QB tandems. Despite this information being behind a paywall, Ben kindly allowed me to publish the entire list for this year for free here. Unsurprisingly, Patrick Mahomes is at the top of the list.
Fawkes Full Rankings all 32 starting NFL QBs by point-spread value
1. Patrick Mahomes (7.51 points ATS)
2. Josh Allen (6.80)
3. Lamar Jackson (6.78)
4. Justin Herbert (6.35)
5. Jordan Love (6.04)
6. Jared Goff (5.87)
7. Joe Burrow (5.76)
8. Jalen Hurts (5.40)
9. Dak Prescott (5.18)
10. C.J. Stroud (5.12)
11. Aaron Rodgers (5.07)
12. Brock Purdy (4.69)
13. Trevor Lawrence (4.53)
14. Tua Tagovailoa (4.48)
15. Kyler Murray (4.05)
16. Caleb Williams (3.98)*
17. Derek Carr (3.96)
18. Kirk Cousins (3.92)
19. Baker Mayfield (3.85)
20. Matthew Stafford (3.33)
21. Deshaun Watson (3.11)
22. Geno Smith (2.62)
23. Daniel Jones (1.84)
24. Gardner Minshew (1.77)
25. Jacoby Brissett (1.60)
26. Anthony Richardson (1.44)
27. Will Levis (1.39)
28. Jayden Daniels (1.23)*
29. Sam Darnold (1.18)
30. Bryce Young (1.09)
31. Bo Nix (0.84)*
32. Russell Wilson (0.83)
* Denotes an expected rookie QB Starter.
Let’s use this to reflect!
- Prior to Week 1, when Russell Wilson was announced as out and Justin Fields took over, the line moved from Atlanta -2.5 to Atlanta -3. This aligns perfectly with Wilson being worth approximately 0.83 points at the beginning of the season. Despite the movement being half a point instead of a full point, it’s important to recognize that this change moved past the most significant hook in sports betting. The move from -2.5 to -3 carries substantial value by itself.
- After Week 1, when Jordan Love went down, the line shifted by 6.5 points! The Packers were -3 at home against the Indianapolis Colts on a look-ahead line, but when Love went down, the line closed at Colts -3 (-120) / -3.5 (-110). Considering Love is valued at just over 6 points, and the line moved 6.5 points—also moving off of a 3 and through another 3—it’s closer to almost 8 points of standard value. This move was TOO MUCH! We saw this play out perfectly when Malik Willis started, and the Packers cruised to a win.
- After Week 2, when Tua Tagovailoa went down, the Dolphins were headed to Seattle for a Week 3 clash with the Seahawks. The line initially moved 6 points before some action on the Dolphins brought it back to a 4.5-5 point range of value. Ultimately, the Dolphins were smacked 24-3. This was a game I stayed completely away from, except for betting the Under 37. Personally, I rank Tua as a bit more valuable, simply because the system is so tailored to his specific skill set, which includes heavy motion pre-snap, quick releases, and elite accuracy that allows for yards after the catch.
Let’s Use come common sense too!
This list was created over the summer, before we saw preseason games and, of course, before the start of the season. After four weeks, I think it would be safe to assume we should lower the value of Deshaun Watson, raise the value of Jayden Daniels, and directly invert the value of Bryce Young compared to Andy Dalton. However, since we have rankings with attached values, it becomes fairly simple to re-slot players and derive a realistic new value. For example, Jayden Daniels has overperformed through three weeks, including back-to-back games where his team did not have to punt once! Jayden Daniels would likely rank above Levis, Richardson, Brissett, and Minshew, fitting around 2.5 points, just below Matthew Stafford and Geno Smith. The ranges of all quarterbacks help bettors make slight adjustments to these power rankings as the season progresses.
Let’s Apply this to NFL Week 4!
In the last hour, as I was writing this post, Ian Rapoport and Adam Schefter tweeted that both Jordan Love and Justin Herbert are on track to play. Since I have a significant bet on the Packers, I’d like to break down how I used Ben’s list to spot an excellent opportunity.
If you’ve been following the Jordan Love injury, you know he has been practicing in a limited capacity for the past two weeks despite not playing. Videos emerged of Jordan Love practicing with a brace, stating he feels great and will try to play before Week 3. However, bettors could tell this was more or less a smoke signal, as the Packers’ medical staff never actually cleared Love, and they activated a quarterback off their practice squad more than a day before the game against the Tennessee Titans.
Before the Week 3 game, which had priced Love as OUT, I noticed a significant change in the Week 4 look-ahead lines. When the initial 4-6 week timeline for Love’s injury was announced, the Vikings were listed as -2.5 divisional road favorites at Lambeau Field. However, as the situation clarified and it became evident that Jordan Love was likely on track to return for this game, the line shifted back to Packers -2.5.
This created a 5-point swing without moving through any of the NFL key numbers. We must also recognize that the zero was a number within the line move; while a tie is a possible NFL outcome, it is also incredibly infrequent—happening less than 1% of the time.
I noticed that the Week 4 line move relative to the injury news was below the expected market price for Love’s availability, had not moved through any key numbers, and was sitting below the most valuable hook in sports betting. Therefore, I decided last week to place a max bet on Packers -2.5 for Week 4, expecting to wait on the Love news, obtain a key number move, and play it back for half of my max exposure.
We are now looking at a market where Packers -3 is the consensus. When Love is 100% confirmed tomorrow, this will likely push the line to a soft -3.5, allowing me to bet on the Vikings against the spread before the game.
Using Ben Fawkes’ QB Value Rankings - I have a huge position with very clear +EV.
Where to Find Ben’s Work:
I highly recommend subscribing to Ben’s Substack!
He offers both a free and a paid tier, linked with the button above. Be sure to follow him on X/Twitter as well. I’ll hyperlink it: CLICK HERE.
Ben also appeared on The Ringer Gambling Show with Raheem Palmer, a friend of The Advantage. Although it’s an episode from over the summer, it reviews the process and value of the list, along with some details about specific situations. I recommend giving it a listen—I don’t think it’s outdated!