Gridiron Gold: The Prelude

Ever wondered how I got into this?

I am an autodidactic advantage sports gambler.

That means I taught myself how to regularly beat casinos. Pretty fucking cool.

Some of you know my introduction to gambling story, but for those who don’t, here is how it goes.

When I was a college freshman my mom was dating someone who, like me, was a big sports fan. Likely as a means of trying to get to know me better and bond, he set up an online sports betting account, put $500 in it, and we would throw $50 on the games we watched together. This was also in the time pre legalized sports gambling, so when he set up the account he was wiring money to an offshore from a western union and using some bootleg site. Shoutout to him for the effort. When I was home from college for times like Thanksgiving or Christmas, we’d throw in some bets and watch some sports.

When I returned to college my second semester, I called my mom and asked to speak with him “Hey- can I have that username and password so I can bet some money on the games I watch with my friends?” I asked.

I’m sure at that moment, while saying yes, he was confident that money was toast. Quite the opposite 😉.

I ended up consistently going to the library at New York University and charting detailed spreadsheets to track professional gamblers. I watched every YouTube video I could find, and tried to study and mimics the pros picks. This was in early 2011, before I even knew “podcasts” were a thing, maybe some existed. Twitter was actually the best resource for entry level betting content then too. I figured if the people I track have around a 55% hit rate, and I only the copy bets at the exact same number, exact same odds, exact same exposure, and within a certain time from release, then I would also likely hit a longterm roughly 55%. 

In about a year, that $500 account turned into $18,000*. I knew quickly that I was very good; that was not dumb luck.

*Sidebar- this was so far before new gamblers were mainly exposed to parlay cards in advertisements and by media influencers. I knew parlays existed but I also didn’t know anyone that used the feature, so I was never tempted by it. I remember “if - then” bets were a more prominent part of the then rudimentary website interfaces.

For the next decade I continued as a high level recreational sports bettor. I would go into seasons with a “dedicated bankroll.” This means I would put a few hundred dollars into my betting accounts and use that throughout the season to see where I ended up. At the end of each year, I would withdraw my winnings and bring my account balance back to my starting point.

It’s also worth nothing that I had jobs during and after college with the Brooklyn Nets, New York Islanders, and New York Yankees. When I was getting a paycheck from a professional sports team, I was not betting. And since I had aspirations of a long career on the team or league side of professional sports, I never really thought about maximizing my gambling earnings. It was a fun hobby that also made a few bucks, like someone who enjoys spinning clay on a wheel and then selling a handful of pottery mugs.

What most people reading this probably don’t know about me is that I have also had 5 major orthopedic surgeries. The majority of my spine is fused and held up with metal rods and screws. I have a rare spinal deformity, I have osteoporosis at 32 years old, and I live with constant chronic pain. The reason to include this note is NOT to feel bad for me… Everyone deals with some shit, mine is a bad back, its not the end of the world. Also, all my surgeries worked, I am fit as a fiddle 😉, and I can probably kick your ass. Yeah I said it.

The reason I included that is because while I was dealing with multiple spine surgeries and lengthy recoveries, I had time to start betting again and I had no intentions of returning to work for a team. I also had time to listen to a lot of gambling content, and mostly wanted to puke from the amount of 5 leg parlays being recommended. During the months of recovery from my most recent surgery (which fused 8 vertebrae together with 2x 16 inch rods and 18 screws, I started a podcast in my closet and created a twitter to distribute quality betting advice. The Advantage Sports Betting Podcast and @FiddlesPicks were born.

Now a little over 2 years later, I am kicking off my 3rd NFL season in the content space (my 13th season of NFL betting), and I actually have people who really enjoy my work! I am humbled by people who support my work, listen to my shows, and just in general seek out my content. The time you guys spend reading/listening to my stuff is not lost on me, so always know I appreciate you all too.

This is a long winded way of getting to the crux, so while I hope you enjoyed the about me section, here is whats happening this NFL season on FiddlesPicks Substack/The Advantage Sports Betting Newsletter.

For each of the next 18 weeks, I will be highlighting one NFL betting industry leading expert. I will deep dive a strategy they are known for and apply it to the odds for that given week. The topics will be timely, because each lesson will culminate in an applicable best bet.

At the end of the season, you will have a series of articles, a booklet per se, that breaks down 18 strategies to bet the NFL, through the lens of 18 experts, and applied to 18 different betting slates.

There are many subjects I know are going to come up, but when is based on how the season unfolds! I promise you will meet and learn about Stanford Wong and his rules for obtaining value in teaser bets. Billy Walters actually quantified a point spread value for a Super Bowl Hangover. Warren Sharp maps out rest advantages, and they strengthen as the season progresses. Ben Fawkes will help us price the difference between a teams starting QB and their backup when an injury is sustained.

I got myself to where I am at by studying the work of these people, their approaches, and applying them to other betting scenarios. I feel like I am the perfect person to compile this type of resource because while no one directly taught me, I found a lot of great people to learn from. I am excited and honored to spotlight some who have been game changers in the way I think about sports betting.

To kick things off, on Thursday evening you will meet Gadoon “Spanky” Kyrollos, the founder of SpankOdds, and learn about the most fundamental resource for all sports bettors- an odds screen.

I am running a massive flash sale on my picks package- $95 off the first month!

From now until Week 1 kicks off on September 8th at 1PM ET, the first month of first access to all of my picks in a text chat is only 5 bucks!

Instead of paying $100 per month, the first month is 5 bucks. You can cancel at any time.

To get access: click the link above, choose the monthly package and use the active promo code “NFL 5”

Let’s make the first month incredibly easy to get access, let’s win together, and let’s have future months pay for themselves and then some! Of course, this shows a hopeful optimism to start out the NFL season well, but I do expect the vast majority of my wagers to be +CLV, my betting portfolio to always be +EV, and ultimately it should be profitable. I am currently riding 4 straight winning WNBA days and an NFL portfolio where all of my bets have better odds than any sports book is currently offering.

Pro tip: the highest +EV way to get access would be to sign up for the monthly package for $5, and if you enjoy the private chat, cancel monthly and sign up for the bulk options cheaper if you enjoy it)

I also give $50 back simply for leaving a review on my store page. This is eligible in the second month for anyone who is paying $5 for the first month.