Handicapping Every Week 8 NFL Game
Not the start I wanted to NFL season. But now that I am back from traveling, and locking in, lets continue to beat closing lines and then start stacking Ws. I’m 3 for my last 16 NFL bets, while being ahead of market on nearly all of them. Its insanely anomalous, it happens, its reinforces the importance of bankroll management and why my strategies and approach can withstand these aberrations. Few things before I break down every game!
1. Heres a short video I did on Bankroll Management for those unfamiliar with my approach.
2. All podcasts will be back and scheduled for this week, but since I'm doing so many of them (3 NFL & 2/3 NBA pods this week), I am uncertain on timing and thus none will be live shows! I will make sure to tweet out and send links in the next email. Of course, you can find all of my pods here.
Ok lets break down every Week 8 NFL Game!
Buccaneers @ Bills No bets right now! Early splits showed RLM towards Bucs, I got in for a little action and cashed out equal value within 3 minutes. Baker was announced missing practice, and I think the line reacted. It may come back, but its a weird market to enter and I'd advise staying away for a bit.
Eagles @ Commanders Philly side has taken a full point of movement, under has taken small steam at the 44. It went from -5.5 to -6.5, an important number shift in the NFL, and the move off the 44 to 43.5s is notable for totals. There are still a few 44s on the board, so I'll wait to act, looking for an under but no need to rush. These teams have played one another close, and in high scoring contests, and both defenses have been a bit underwhelming through 7 weeks although both are rounding into form. Divisional spots generally mean less scoring.
Jaguars @ Steelers Steelers were the side I wanted originally, as home tomlin is my favorite underdog spot to bet on in the NFL, and the Jags have been on a tear but the travel schedule continues to be so bad. However the line is moving Jags direction as sharp side, so its a stay away on the spread. The best bet here is Steelers/Jags Ov 41.5 at DK, as the entire board is now at 42. 0.5u Over 41.5, because im paying -112 juice and I'm on the opposite side of the 41/40, which are the two most important NFL numbers, although they were never available for an over.
Saints @ Colts This game is weird and bouncing. I grabbed an Under 42.5 for 0.5u, but it has moved against me and I couldnt work off in time. Now up to 43.5, im worried about this position, advise no bets. Its two impressive defenses through 7 weeks, but I can see both trying to throw the ball more since they're so good against the run, which could lead to more scoring. Hopefully I get some -CLV variance in my direction here. I really like Saints +1.5 but yet to bet it because its mixed signals. Money on DK on Saints. Money on FD on Colts. PointsBet moving to +2, Bet MGM moving to +1. WTF is going on here, idk, but no thanks on action right now.
Texans @ Panthers Battle of the Rookie QBs, Young Vs Stroud! Panthers +3 is emerging as the early sharp side, as is the OVER moving from 41.5 to 43. I'm likely grabbing the +3 for a unit because the value of the number and market signals showing we may get 2.5s to do a little buyback.
Rams @ Cowboys Seeing some places marked open as 5.5, other places marked open as 7, and now universally 6 and 6.5s and meeting in the middle. People likely bet both sides if they line shopped and saw middling the 6 as valuable... it is! Without having that opportunity, i dont see anything I want now.
Falcons @ Titans Grabbed Falcons -1 yesterday for full u when line first posted. I have bet Falcons damn near every week ATS, and in futures, and i continue to attack it as they get line movement and sharp action week after week. Titans likely without Tannehill early reports, so lets grab the number quick. Some -1.5s left, but already some -2.5s on the board, wow. Good spot. Total is nothing I want to touch if I'm backing a road favorite in an spot with a total ov 37.
Jets @ Giants: MetLife Stadium Showdown! Lets wait on some injury reports for Giants and Jets, who are both down big players in key spots. It sits at Jets -3 and likely an under spot. Its so gross I dont want to even track the line movement lol.
Patriots @ Dolphins: Divisional matchups with a 10 point dog spread are attractive. When its the Pats who always play their division very strong, after a home W against the bills, and taking sharp action, lets grab it now. 9.5s popping up on the board, 10 still available at Wynn and 1-2 other books. I hit Pats +10 for 0.75u, may do small buyback on the key number eventually, or hope to let CLV rock. I bet and covered Pats vs dolphins earlier this season.
Vikings @ Packers Packers return home to their strong home field advantage, Vikings are road dogs on a short week and they are weak on the road. However, I have no action yet, because Vikings are the sharp side for MNF tonight, and if they come out strong theres a chance this line moves a bit. I dont see the Packers moving through the 3 without (another) Vikings injury occurring. Big time under steam though! 42 at DK and 43.5 at FD, wow big difference. Im going to take small action on BOTH, open a 43 middle spot on 5% implied probability, and tilt the exposure towards the UN 43.5 considering where the rest of market sits.
Browns @ Seahawks Hard to bet early week Browns not knowing whos playing QB right now. I'll leave it to that and not bet it or go deep. Watson getting another MRI, all things on hold.
Bengals @ 49ers First thing of note is rest advantage situation. Bengals coming off a bye, 49ers coming off 6 days rest from MNF turnaround. +8 days to Bengals for rest and prep, this signficiant. Thats why a lot of 6s are turning to 5.5s, and travel situaitons are something I love to bet into. The Bengals also need to fight for their division, best one in football, and the 49ers have a clear edge. Its possible Deebo comes back and moves this line against us, but lets take the +6 because its key for a small half unit now. Correlates with a little under steam thats come in.
Ravens @ Cardinals Ravens look like one of the top teams in the NFL, Lamar making an MVP case, and Cards starting to fall off a bit. However, Cards have been much stronger at home, and seem to be taking early sharp action. Its a stay away for now, Ravens are in the teaser zone, but they dont look to be in danger of leaving it, so hold off for now and maybe take it later at 7.5 to 1.5.
Chiefs @ Broncos Opens to 8.5 and is coming down to 7.5 everywhere. Divisional games = closer games, Broncos just played this Chiefs team well and then won against the Packers and are home for b2b weeks. Mahomes is rounding into MVP form though, so I dont want to touch it. Movement towards the OVER 44.5 intrigues me, but we miss the important 44 and its a divisional game.
Bears @ Chargers Chicago and Under steam! Generally Bears/Unders dont correlate, and neither does Chargers unders. So no thanks on following that steam. Will the Chargers get it together? Will the Bears keep this up? Who's playing QB for the Bears? Can Justin Fields grip a football yet?
Raiders @ Lions Early movement and massive money on the home Lions to cover a big spread. Very intrigued on teasing them! Lions are great at home, are the sharp side here, and we dont know who will play QB for the Raiders. This early signs may show Jimmy may be on the wrong side of questionable, and if so, it would move further. -7.5 at BetMGM still available and worth grabbing now!