Hot for the Miami Heat

Monday I had some of those bad beats that sucked to be part of, but are actually an interesting story after to reflect on, so here is how it went. I bet four different player props, 3 of them landed 0.5 off the number I needed giving me the hook on 75% of my props lol. The Kings/Wolves game is 108-103 with 50 seconds left in the game. A total of 211. I am holding under 223.5, I would say its north of a 95% situational spot to not have 13 points scored in the last 50 seconds (id say more than 99% of NBA minutes played don’t have 13 points scored in 50 seconds, but late game fouling in a close to stop the clock for FT would make it a bit more likely here). Well… 19 points were scored in the last 47 seconds. What in the world?

Then the Suns and Blazers are playing, I have Suns -3.5 as it closed at 5, Under 231 as it closed 229. The 4th quarter ends with 214 total points scored… but obviously it would be 107-107 and go to overtime. Add 5 minutes to the clock and put in all the starters. In overtime the 232nd point scored happen WITH 8 SECONDS LEFT. Ok now the over is dead, but are the Suns, can they cover in OT? Nope, Devin Booker misses a free throw with 4 seconds left having a chance to tie the game. Blazers win outright, game goes over in overtime.

No lie, I think I had 5 actually bad beats within 6 of those losses. Suns did not deserve to cover, they are buns, but 5 of the others should have won. One of the player props was Walker Kessler over 9.5 points, he has 7 at half, finishes the game with 9, and misses 4 consecutive free throws in the second half………… bruh.

All day I was thinking I should have bet more into yesterday’s card because I had great numbers, turns out I got lucky I didnt. -2.75units on the day, we will move on.

Moving on first means taking Miami Heat -3.5 (-110 DraftKings,Caesars have it). I played this for 2u, as I think this a strong spot to recognize getting in front of a Bulls fade. What they just did with that Zach LaVine trade speaks VOLUMES. They got rid of their best player (having a fantastic season), and the centerpiece of the return was THEIR OWN DRAFT PICK BACK WITHOUT PROTECTIONS ANYMORE. The players were contract fillers for LaVines huge salary. Kevin Huerter, Zach Collins and Tre Jones have all probably been disappointments on their current contracts. I am not sure if those guys are even cleared and active tomorrow, but either way the Bulls could be integrating new pieces against the Miami system, or running with a shortened rotation. Pick your poison, give me Miami ATS.

Chicago is tanking. They just announced it with their actions. The more losses, the better that pick is, the more valuable this trade becomes. Recognizing what the Bulls are doing is actionable, this is quickly going to become a different team than we have seen this season.

Here is the link for the live stream tomorrow at 10am. I will be breaking down every side and total on the card, maybe a few prop angles, playing some awesome NBA clips, and trying to avoid the land mine bad beats on the Tuesday card.