Is Tyrese Haliburton Hurt or Injured?

+230, +1300, +4000

Shams Charania dropped a market shifting tweet stating that Indiana Pacers Superstar Tyrese Haliburton will undergo an MRI on what is believed to be a strained right calf muscle to determine the severity of the injury. The big concern with calf strains is that they can lead to very serious injuries like a ruptured achilles.

My A’s in Anatomy 1 & 2 when I was at NYU (this is real) would like to inform the readers that the calf muscle is made up of two components, the Gastroc and the Soleus. The Soleus is the DIRECT CONNECTION to the achilles tendon. When the Soleus is stretched too quickly, most commonly when jumping or cutting (hello basketball movement), it can tear the achilles tendon. The injury is apparently not painful, but requires surgery and a lengthy recovery. The best treatment for a strained calf is… rest.

So does Haliburton play?

Aaron Gordon played Game 7 of Round 2 against the Thunder with a Grade 2 hamstring strain - and reports emerged if the Nuggets had won he would definitely miss a few games to start the next series. Darius Garland played through a turf toe injury in his great toe that required offseason surgery. Dame Lillard and Jayson Tatum have already been lost this postseason to torn Achilles’. And we will all recall Kevin Durant playing through a strained calf before his achilles rupture in 2019 against the Raptors in the finals. Jalen Rose reported the pregame workouts went very badly, and Bob Myers was crying after for letting him play.

The consensus odds shifted from Thunder -5 to -6.5 for Game 6. The market is reacting/participating in what is called probabilistic modeling; determining what the percent chance Haliburton plays is, combined with what percent impact he would have compared to his normal output.

As a bettor first who is obsessed with advantage gambling techniques (ever realize WHY my show is named what it is? Is this a whoaaa moment?), I have to look for angles to attack this news. Thunder to -6.5 is now priced out and having +CLV solely depends on Haliburton being active or inactive.

So whats the angle? Attack the TJ McConnell 3 Point market.

TJ McConnell Ov 0.5 3PM (+235 Bet365, +230 BetMGM, +210 CZ, 0.25u).
TJ McConnell 2+ 3PM (+1300 Bet365, 0.1u)

These are all good prices across the market in my opinion. Regardless of if Haliburton plays, he will be compromised and will likely get less minutes (I would imagine a shorter 1H playing time to keep him fresher for the end). TJ has already made a 3 pointer in 3 of the first 5 games of this series. Yes that is priced into the current line, but it is clear he is playing with high degree of confidence and both the defensive strategy against him and his role within the offense in this series calls for him to take those shots.

If Haliburton is out, its obvious that McConnells minutes spike to 28+ and his volume will be expected to rise so much that these numbers would be cut in half. I personally stopped at +1300, but the 3+ at 40:1 would be a ridiculous hit.

Good luck in your bets!

So far this is my only position for Game 6. Let me know in the comments what lines you like and I will happily respond with my opinion (aka market guidance).

WNBA BONUS ADVICE:
I crushed the WNBA Tuesday night, Wednesday I like PHX Mercury ATS (-13) and the under (156.5), they are inversely correlated though, so prob best to pick one at current numbers. Connecticut Sun are on the 2nd night of a B2B, with a travel component, and had a fight with the Fever tonight that might result in suspension (multiple players were ejected). If no suspensions, I still think Tina Charles may rest on the B2B.