Just bet a +750 NBA Future!

NBA Playoffs Exact Seeding Odds are live on DK!

All Star Break is the perfect time to check back in with NBA futures. We are slightly passed the midway point of the season; the major narratives are formed, the trade deadline is over, awards are becoming races between a few top candidates, and the standings are starting to shake out where playoff matchups become a discussion and seedings can be a place to predict outcomes. Thats exactly what I bumped into today, when someone called my attention to Indiana Pacers +750 to be the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference. I bet 1unit.

Throughout the week I have been deep diving Updated NBA Win Totals as part of my work with Action Network. The first batch of teams that I went through was the current top 6 seeds in the Eastern Conference. I broke down the current record, preseason win total closing line, current win pace, updated/current win total betting line, strength of schedule, and team contextualization. Going through this, I concluded that the Indiana Pacers were a team to continue betting the over on their win total.

Then someone within Action brought to my attention the individual seeding odds and we noticed the Pacers sitting at +750 to obtain the 4 seed. They are currently in the 6th seed, 2 games back of the 76ers, and 2.5 games back of the 4th seed NY Knicks. Let’s add some layers to this.

Schedule: The Pacers have the easiest remaining strength of schedule of the 3 teams. Per Tankathon, Pacers have the 12th easiest remaining SOS, Knicks are dead middle of the pack, and 76ers are in top 10 hardest remaining schedules.

Health: The Pacers are also the, **knocks on wood**, healthiest team of these three as well. Haliburton missed a bunch of games in the first half of the season with hamstring issues, but now seems to have returned to full strength. They also added the biggest star at the deadline in Pascal Siakem. Meanwhile, the Knicks are still dealing playing without Randle/Robinson/Anunoby, and timetables remain unclear on their return. Same with the 76ers who are missing Joel MVPiid.

Looming Threat: The Orlando Magic and the Miami Heat loom closely behind and in the mix. Orlando has the easiest remaining schedule, Miami is also in the top 5 easiest. Considering the top 6 seeds get to secure a playoff spot and skip the play in, I expect all of these teams to gun heavily for it. The Orlando Magic are very young, the Miami Heat are also banged up- hopefully the slight lead and talent advantage Indiana has to prevail. Of course, there is also a chance the Bucks or Cavaliers also dip out of the top 3 seeds, though those seems more secured.

Hedgibility: This most definitely is not a real word, but you guys get the point! The reason I bet a full unit on this long shot is because I felt the value was worth obtaining, the timing to invest in futures market is perfect, but also because this ticket SHOULD provide opportunity to hedge as needed. We may or may not have these seeding odds available for the rest of the season, but we will have individual games later on that will carry massive weight in this race if its down to the wire. Betting moneylines in individual games will become an option to hedge, even if these seeding odds disappear.

The final bet:
Indiana Pacers +750 Eastern Conference 4th Seed (1u)

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