Last Minute MNF Best Bet!

Cowboys ML for the W?!

Tough 1-4 week thus far, where my beautiful CLV continues to be meaningless this season, 🥲😤

Here is a late addition Best Bet for Monday Night Football Dallas Cowboys @ LA Chargers.

BEST BET: COWBOYS ML -120 (0.5u BetMGM)

This will be a fun write up for people who like studying the gambling board and playing numbers instead of sports opinions. There has been very little movement in the point spread for this game since post. Occasional moments of Cowboys -1, I think I saw Cowboys -2 at one point, but the market is correctly priced and settled at the 1.5. It is consensus between public books like FanDuel & DraftKings, and sharper books like Circa.

The total has taken the most movement towards the over. It opened at 47.5 and has since moved to 50.5. When it moves a full 3 points & gone through some key numbers in the process, I do not want to follow steam on the over.

I do recognize however, that a general betting concept is to pair over spots with favorites. If the game has a lot of scoring, the favorite is more likely to win and has a higher rate of covering. So when I see games moving up in the totals, its not a universal rule, its a general concept, it makes me feel a tad better about the favorite.

Now lets look at the numbers we have available throughout the market. I noted that the spread was universally -1.5, and the best odds for that is a standard -110 on the Cowboys side. However, when I look at the ML I see prices ranging from -120 to -130 (see picture below).

Then I go and check my notes and numbers, and I see a -1.5 NFL money line bet should correlate with a -123 price. So by line shopping and placing the bet at BetMGM, I am grabbing the side I want, supported by betting theory, running numbers and taking the bet that provides the best value and saves me 3c on the dollar.

Last, I am put over the top with betting splits that show more %money than %volume on the Cowboys side, and I like taking the ML instead of a +1.5 because scoring gets wonkier with teams who go for 2pt conversions and 4th downs with higher frequency, which is Brandon Staleys sauce. So I am betting a sprinkle half unit on them boys to win outright. They may even feel like the home team with a primetime game and generally a weak LA crowd.

If you do want to bet the chargers, they do fit criteria to be used in a teaser bet from +1.5 to +7.5, and there are plenty of other Wong Teaser legs to consider adding and pairing with it for Week 7 games. Good luck & let me know if you tail!

I also already bet Saints +1.5 (1.75u), Saints/Jags Over 42.5, and Patriots -2.5/Falcons +8.5 Teaser (0.75u). I will send on write ups on those in the First Bets of Week 7 post coming tomorrow!