LEBRON VS STEPH ON THURSDAY

Possibly luckier than my lucky Wednesday

For Wednesday’s NBA slate, I canceled the live show because 8 of the 9 games were double digit spreads, gross/meaningless late season games, high risk for mid day injury news changes, and sent out the 3 bets that I was on. They were all SWEATY down to the wire that despite the variability in capping the games, the numbers were spot on. I ended up going 2-0-1, +1.1unit, and feeling like luck was on my side.

Indiana and Charlotte scored 11 points in the final 1 minute and 10 seconds of a blowout double digit game where none of those points mattered. Even Rick Carlisle is waiving off the Pacers to dribble out the clock with 30 seconds left, but backup center Thomas Bryant still pulls a turnaround mid range fade away and sinks in, the last shot of the game, and holding an Over 223.5 lands at 224. LOL. I’LL TAKE IT!

I had Dallas -2, it closed at -3.5 and was a great ticket even with PJ Washington being a late scratch. This one almost felt unlucky, but was also possibly good luck, I don’t which side to believe, I just know it was crazy. Dallas is up 10 points with just a few minutes left, and suddenly the Hawks go wild and storm to a 3 point lead with less than a minute left. A Klay Thompson movement 3 to tie the game, a Dyson Daniels turnover, and an Anthony Davis game winner/game pusher for us on Mavericks -2.

Finally - OKC -13.5 felt pretty good all game as they held a double digit game. Suddenly the Cade-less Detroit Pistons make this a 4 point game in the final few minutes. Somehow OKC goes nails and scores 12 straight points to win by 16 and cover. LUCKY!

LUCK DEFINITELY EXISTS IN SPORTS BETTING!!! Having good numbers and strong market positions is the best indicator of long term results, but to think this game is all positions without luck is insane. That being said, I like to emphasize that having MORE BAD LUCK THAN GOOD LUCK IS ACTUALLY TO BE EXPECTED. This is real, this is not feelings based and feeling the losses more than the wins. If you consistently are in +CLV positions, you are primed to have some smart wins or bad beats. On the nights you just pure lucky on flat market positions, we thank the gambling gods and move on!

ON THURSDAY I AM DOING A SOLO SHOW BREAKING DOWN ALL 6 NBA GAMES, EVERY SIDE, EVERY TOTAL, WHERE MY ACTION IS, WHERE SHARP SIDES ARE DEVELOPING AND WHAT POSITIONS ARE STILL ACTIONABLE! I will be live at 10am ET using the YouTube linked below - please subscribe to the channel as well as like/comment on the video and do the little things to help our channel grow as we do more on YouTube.

One bet worth placing now is Memphis @ Miami OVER 227.5. I released this in the private whop chat at Ov 225.5 for a 1.25unit play, but would still play the Over 227.5 for 0.75units. The Grizzlies are emphasizing pace under the new coach as it seems the decreased pace over the last two months from Jenkins at the helm bothered the front office. Its a top down initiative for the Grizzlies to be the fastest paced team in the NBA, and that should lead to overs. The Grizzlies are 2-1 to the over under coach TI, and the lone game they didnt go over was simply poor shooting with a pregame betting line that moved from 232.5 up to 239. Back the overs until they are priced out, which is not yet for Memphis.

Also, we get Lebron vs Steph on the Thursday NBA card… I have a betting angle ready for it, so be sure to tune into the live stream at 10am ET to know which GOAT we are backing.

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