Let's Get Ahead of Friday Action
Mavs up 1-0
Bold Prediction: Mavs in 5.
Tonight was a good night on the hardwood. The Mavs 1Q ML didn’t hit, but that was pure shooting variance. Kyle Anderson and Jaden McDaniels were simply making everything, and the Wolves went 6/11 from 3 in the 1Q. But I also noticed the Mavericks getting anything they wanted around the rim. Using some of our live betting principles discussed on that strategy pod last week, I faded early shooting success and backed early paint success- and it paid off. I tweeted them out live (and odds get even better on Mavs side after my tweet), Mavs +285 ML and +6.5 (+108) were two winners for me tonight.
After the game I popped onto Boston Radio and joined Adam Kaufman’s show The Gambler. We talked Celtics/Pacers G2 and even some early reads for Mavs/Wolves G2. I will make sure to tweet out the link once the podcast version is posted.
Newly Added Bets: I have added 1 player prop for Thursday, and already 3 Best Bets for Friday. Lets break them down and re organize our schedule.
Obi Toppin Un 0.5 3PM (+190, 0.25u)
Small play but the value is obvious I have to. Obi is playing great but he still isnt a volume 3pt shooter. He has attempted 12 3s over his last 6 games, 2 per, while shooting 40%. He has 0 3s in half the games, yet still being offered +190. The implied probability compared to recent output makes no sense- and comes at a time when Obi is playing great! The books might be pricing in the schmucks who build out a bunch of over props on parlays and look for easy legs to juice. I’ll simply go the other way, this has value as a straight small bet.
Mavericks/Wolves Un 208.5 (1u)
Mavericks +4.5 (0.75u)
Mavericks +162 (0.5u)
The under was the strongest spot to grab here early. The Wolves shot 49 3s and made 18 of them!! Thats crazy shooting output, both volume and solid efficiency. I do not expect McDaniels to be nearly as efficient. On the Mavericks side, I think the wolves will sure up some of the paint problems and the Mavericks will have less easy looks. The Mavs will shoot more 3s, and be a bit better than they were, but be offset with reduced paint touches. After the Mavs won G1 outright and closed at +4.5, I wanted to grab that again right away. I trust them in 1Qs, Wolves start slow, and this seemed like a place I could eventually work off of I felt it was a close game. Despite some moves out to -5 for wolves, I expect closing line to go back to 4.5 and would still play the +5 and enjoy that hook.
Organized Schedule of NBA Best Bets
🏀 NBA Best Bets Thursday May 23rd 🏀
Celtics -9 (1u)
Derrick White 3s Leader (+400, 0.1u)
Derrick White Ov 2.5 3s (.142 to win 0.1u)
Obi Toppin Un 0.5 3s (+190, 0.25u)
TJ McConnell Under 0.5 3s (-280, 0.5u risked)
🏀 NBA Best Bets Friday May 24th 🏀
Mavs/Wolves Un 208.5 (1u)
Mavs +4.5 (0.75u)
Mavs +162 (0.5u)