Line Discrepancy Strategy Post!

Apply this concept if/when you find this situation

The hot streak officially came to an end tonight. I finally had two consecutive losing days. It was a damn good 3 weeks, with a hot streak that ends at 14 winning days of the last 18 slates bet, 2 days off, 20 days total. I will do full stats/tracker updates tomorrow, but I know the best two days cumulatively beat the all 4 down days combined… and then there were twelve more profitable days 😂😂😂. It’s a treat myself kind of day tomorrow, which I will explain how I am handling within the strategy of this play.

🏀 NBA Best Bets Thursday March 28th 🏀

Celtics -13.5 (-110 6units, BetRivers)
Hawks +16 (-110 2units, FanDuel)
Hawks +17.5 (-105 2units, Caesars)

I am going to explain what happened here as a chronological story of what I was doing, how I noticed a 5 alarm fire in the gambling market, and subsequently how I reacted. I will add the photos of each line above as they presented themselves in real time.

This 10unit position started when I was preparing to post something very regular for me, the “Talk to me, what do you like for NBA Thursday” tweet with the DraftKings odds board. Here was the photo I took at the time of the 2 game NBA Thursday board. At this point, there was some under and Bucks movement in the second game, nothing major in the first.

Then I got some texts and got distracted for a few minutes. When I went back to my desk, and having 12 years of sports gambling experience, I knew the screenshot I had taken a few moments earlier had to be double checked before being posted. And there I saw Celtics -16. What. Just. Happened????

Without even checking WHY this happened, I checked WHERE this happened. Pop over to Fanduel, 16. Pop open the big board, 16/15.5/16/15.5….and one 13.5 at BetRivers. I RUSH TO CHECK IF ITS THERE. SNIPE!

Insert Strategy Point #1: If you ever see a 2.5 point discrepancy in the market on an NBA spread, find the outlier to the consensus of the market and fucking hammer it. 3units is my typical “max play” with the caveat of rules are meant to be broken if you know you will have good movement to play it back. Here I was going to do both instantly, and doubled my usual max.

I rushed to twitter to try and post it, only for BetRivers to close the market within 90 seconds. It was not my bet that did that. I’ve submitted bets that seconds later say, “Market has Closed” and in those moments I know I hit the fire alarm switch to the trader desk. This was not that. No NBA point spread that is 2.5 points off market consensus is going to stay alive for more than 3-5 minutes, because inherently that immediately presents an opportunity to open the middle.

And so I did that. Boom. My second play was Atlanta Hawks +16 at Fanduel within a few moments of placing the first.

Insert Strategy Point 2: After laying down Thors Hammer on the outlier line, just immediately start to open the middle position. This 2u bet was 1/3 of my position. The number may get better, it may get worse, but you don’t want to find yourself overexposed with the entire board quickly moving back to 13.5. Any 2.5 points in an NBA spread has tremendous middle value. Take that, and tilt it towards the existing CLV for the rest.

Holding a -13.5 for 6units and a +16 for 2u, when the whole board is at 16, is what I call BULLYING THE MARKET. That’s dominant. Got ‘em with their pants at their ankles type of value obtained. Now I can see where the board starts to shake out, and use my principles of timing buybacks to finish this off.

What I am looking for is known as a resistance point. If the lines at 16 start bouncing back to 15.5, then I’ll try and find a 16 and strike again. If the lines at 16 start moving to 16.5, then I wait to see how far this goes before the resistance point shows up… Just like making pasta, I am going to wait until I see the water boil to put the penne in.

The line has continued to go to 17.5 and to be honest, I still don’t know if we have hit the resistance point but I will explain why I played it now. The first thought was, I do not remember seeing any -18 point spread this NBA season as a pregame line. So this game would have to exceed every other match up this season I can remember which feels iffy, possible… but iffy- a road favorite rematch 2 days later off a Celtics loss.

Second, I had to consider my own schedule! Where the resistance point shows up suddenly becomes irrelevant if I am not going to be around to see it. This is when I turn off the stove and decide not to make the pasta. Who needs carbs as a midnight snack, I’ll just go to sleep.

Between us- this is a 2 game NBA Thursday slate, and I have the ability to have all my positions settled in dominant fashion before bed the night prior. I can pretty much not have to watch the market on any game tomorrow all day… have strong value with no risk of being over exposed. Sign me up! That means I can wake up, take Bron to the dog park, go to the gym, hit to the beach in the afternoon and then watch the games. Epic day. I placed another 2u at the current Hawks +17.5 at Caesars.

So in summation…
1. I found a 2.5 point market discrepancy, identified the outlier line as Celtics -13.5 and went in for 2x my normal max bet because the value is larger than normal.

2. I immediately played back Hawks +16 at 1/3 of the position by picking off the discrepancy.

3. I continued to observe movement to watch for the resistance point in the line.

4. I considered my personal schedule and ability to market watch, and made the decision to feel like I have finalized my position by doing the second buyback on the Hawks +17.5 line.

YOU CAN BLANKET APPLY THIS TO ANY SITUATION WHERE YOU SEE 2.5 POINTS OF LINE VALUE DISCREPANCIES IN NBA SPREADS!!!!

It is rare to have this happen and will not last long being available, so definitely try and understand the concept happening here so you can recognize and react in real time if the situation pops up for you! Feel free to ask questions, I have enabled leave comments on this post!

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