Modeling 2025 OKC vs The Greatest Teams of All Time

This 2024–25 Oklahoma City Thunder team is one of the best basketball teams I have ever watched. However, it feels a bit premature to immediately place them in that class because they haven’t won anything significant enough to rethink history.

How could they? The OKC Thunder are currently the second youngest team in the NBA. Right now, the simple answer is: they might win their first Finals.

But this team is a spoil of riches. They have this year’s MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. They have a second co-star, Jalen Williams, who was a first-time All-Star and made the All-NBA Third Team and All-Defensive Second Team. They have a First Team All-Defensive perimeter stopper in Lu Dort (and two bigs who very likely would have been involved in these teams if they reached the minimum games requirement—Chet would have been a lock). They are coached by last season’s Coach of the Year, Mark Daigneault.

The result: sixty-eight wins while posting the second-best net rating in NBA history—only behind the 1995–96 Chicago Bulls with MJ and Scottie. That elite.

So how historic is this team? In 20 years, will we be talking about the ’25 Thunder in the same breath as the KD/Curry Warriors? As the Shaq/Kobe Lakers? What about the two legends listed above and pictured below?

I decided to take the best teams in NBA history and put them into the model that I run. Not only did I generate a spread and total for the 2025 OKC Thunder against all-time teams, but I could also pit any historic teams against one another (at either home court) and see it all projected into betting odds. The results were truly astonishing.

The rest of the article will take each team and provide a theoretical Game 1 spread and total against the 2025 OKC Thunder—and, just like the NBA does, I used regular-season records to determine who would have home court. I also included other observations because I went all out and priced nearly every possible matchup.

This is one of the coolest thought experiments I have executed in a long time. Special shoutout to Ian Toria, who helps so much behind the scenes with what we do, for pulling all the statistical categories needed to run the model.

THE TEAMS:

1986 Boston Celtics: Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Robert Parish, Dennis Johnson, Danny Ainge, Bill Walton

1996 Chicago Bulls: Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Dennis Rodman, Steve Kerr, Ron Harper, Toni Kukoč

2000 Los Angeles Lakers: Kobe Bryant, Shaquille O’Neal, Derek Fisher, Glen Rice, A.C Green (also Ron Harper)

2012 Oklahoma City Thunder: Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins

2013 Miami Heat: Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Ray Allen, Shane Battier

2014 San Antonio Spurs: Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginóbili, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green

2017 Golden State Warriors: Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala

2024 Boston Celtics: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Kristaps Porzingus, Al Horford

(Above is not necessarily the starting lineup, but the most notable players.)

THE MATCHUPS:

1. 2012 Thunder @ 2025 Thunder:

The 2012 OKC Thunder were the only non-championship team that I included. I simply wanted to compare this Thunder team that just made the Finals to the only other Thunder roster to reach this point—which happened to feature three future MVP winners. The ’25 OKC Thunder get home court and are a -4.5 home favorite in Game 1. That line is gaining steam and closing closer to -5.5 or -6, with a multitude of options to throw at Durant and not a mature or efficient enough supporting cast around KD to stand much of a chance. Flip it, though—the ’12 Thunder with home court is priced at a perfect pick’em, -110 each way.

2. 2000 Lakers @ 2025 Thunder:

The Thunder get home court, finishing one game ahead. The prime Shaq/Kobe Lakers finished with 67 regular-season wins, also in first place, and dominated those playoffs. Except the ’25 Thunder may have been their downfall, as the Thunder are -3.5 at home and +0.5 on the road. Despite the numbers favoring OKC, subjectively I might prefer the Lakers. Shaq’s body type is the one chink in OKC’s armor, and Kobe would figure out Dort, Caruso, or a young Cason Wallace. The problem is depth—OKC’s ability to space with Chet at the five and play Hack-a-Shaq to win a points-per-shot math game (Classic Daigneault, am I right?).

3. 1986 Celtics @ 2025 Thunder:

Home court is king in this matchup; the swap between arenas has the largest delta of any other theoretical series. I was negative six years old when this would have taken place, so I have little thought and inherent bias to assume the Celtics wouldn’t hang athletically. Then I see some Bird mid-air reverse layup highlight packages, and I realize time is a flat circle. Thunder -4 at home, but +2 on the road. Maybe a young Bill Simmons is in the crowd. My question for him: are you on the over or under? Because it’s 210, -110 both ways.

4. 2013 Heat @ 2025 Thunder:

The 2013 Heatles are, were, and will forever be my favorite basketball team of all time. What an iconic group, notching a repeat title with the famous Bosh rebound leading to Ray Allen’s corner three. That being said, realistically, OKC would have been the gambling favorite and the likely sharp side to be on. The Heat’s competition was at a lower level, and I think they would have really struggled against the flexible and ever-changing ’25 Thunder. The OKC Thunder are -4 at home and only +1 (-115) in Miami. The fans leaving early is priced in 😂.

5. 2024 Celtics @ 2025 Thunder:

All we heard last season was about the Celtics’ dominant net rating, and then this year the Thunder topped it. The Thunder had four more regular-season wins and get home court. The Celtics stayed relatively the same from last season, so we kind of saw BOS vs. OKC, and the result was 2-0 OKC. The odds agree: Thunder -2.5 at home, +1.5 on the road. The big difference here is coaching—I prefer Daigneault’s innovation over Mazzulla’s analytics and intensity. I was praying this matchup would come to fruition; I would have been all over OKC because we would have gotten reasonable numbers. Plot twist: right now, I’m deciding whether to basically lay double digits in Game 1 of the Finals.

The total for this series would have hovered around 212.5, and that would have been so damn sharp.

6. 2017 Warriors @ 2025 Thunder:

The 2017 Warriors are the best team I have ever seen play. Truly unfair. Despite only winning 67 games, the ’17 Warriors had Durant and were therefore better than the 72-win Warriors who lost in the Finals the year prior without the "ezmoneysniper." That home court will cost them in this series, as OKC is -2.5 at home and +2 on the road. The model says Thunder win—that is not how I would have bet it. Give me the Warriors all day, even without home court. I would be playing them in the series and game to game. I hated them; those Warriors were way too good.

7. 2014 Spurs @ 2025 Thunder

This series would feature some of the most similar playing styles to one another: a full team effort, the ability to play big and small, inside or outside, with a defense-first mindset as the cornerstones. Despite playing what is often branded as the most beautiful basketball, the Spurs would not hold up against the 2025 OKC Thunder. The perimeter size would be too much for Tony and Manu, the double bigs would afford Duncan different looks, and Kawhi was the 2014 Finals MVP, but he was not a finished product yet. The Thunder are -3.5 at home and +0.5 (-115) on the road. This is as close as the Thunder get to being a road favorite against a former champion. The Spurs appear to be the weakest of the all-time teams.

8. 2025 Thunder @ 1996 Bulls

The one we were all waiting for—flip the home court. The 1996 Chicago Bulls won 72 games and, as mentioned above, still hold the best net rating of all time. I never get into the LeBron vs. MJ debate; I was four years old when this series happened, and I never truly experienced the MJ era as a basketball fan. But the numbers speak for themselves, and gambling prices are more important to me than my basketball opinion. MJ seems to be the goat, the Chicago Bulls are the first team listed who would be series favorites vs the 2025 OKC Thunder.

There are other examples you may want the ‘17 Warriors as a dog, I would, but its undoubtable that the Thunder are dogs against Mike and Scottie. The Thunder are +2 AT Chicago in Game 1 as the opening line, its taking steam towards the legends. When in OKC, the Thunder are the shortest favorite as well, only at -1.5.

The total is 199.5, are we getting to 200 in this style of ball?

THREE OTHER OBSERVATIONS:

1. None of the teams above that won the title were priced as home underdogs against any team. The only team to be a home underdog was the 2012 Thunder, who lost in the NBA Finals.

2. I am now rethinking the 1996 Chicago Bulls when stacked up against these other squads. That’s the best team of all time. I’m even willing to go as far as to say—yeah, Mike might be better than LeBron. I didn’t watch MJ, but I think we have enough evidence to say that we will never truly know. Still, prime Michael Jordan would more likely be the better player if matched up against prime LeBron James. This is mindset-shifting for me.

3. The 2014 Spurs perform the worst against the model. While they are never outright home underdogs, even with home court advantage they would find themselves as underdogs in a series against some of the other teams. Their home court spreads are -1 versus the 2017 Warriors, pick’em (-115) versus the 2025 Thunder, and a flat pick’em (-110) against the 1996 Bulls.

Thank you for reading this post. If you made it this far, you are a real one ❤️.

If you are wondering what the spread and/or total would be between two teams I did not explicitly give, comment below and I will generate the prices for you!

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