More Week 2 Action!

Since my last blast of picks Monday morning, I have added 6 new bets for Week 2. We will get into all of them, but first, some housekeeping!

- Week 2 Slate Breakdown Podcast is POSTED! I went through every single game on the board, reviewed the betting trends and splits, tracked the line movement, discussed the relative key numbers, explain my best bet positions, and then took that over to the DFS world where I reviewed the high spend options at every position. Slate breakdowns are very high level gambling info, so be sure to check them out!

- The Free Chris Olave Rookie Card Giveaway is still active for entries until Sunday morning! All you have to do is comment on any Substack Post and I will enter your name in the randomizer. If you already commented on the last one, you can get more entries by leaving another comment here! I do not care what you write, let me know what you ate for lunch lol, I just want to get more actively engaged with you guys!

PS: you want to be in these giveaways. Without going into too much detail, the Olave card is refractory, its a rookie collection card, and its made by Panini.

Ok lets review the bets. I want to start off by recognizing the pitfall of a newsletter that gives out picks is that these lines are very quick to react in early parts of the week, as injury news, weather updates and such information come in. The Monday morning first bets emails will always have more tailing opportunities that the mid week update. So just make sure you are following me on X.com as I always post the bets in a thread for that week!

Minnesota Vikings +7.5 (-110, 0.75unit DraftKings)
Earlier this week I noted I had grabbed Eagles -6 in a week look ahead spot. Before any Week 1 games were played, I was already on the Eagles in Week 2. However, the line has moved significantly through some very important numbers, reopening at +/- 8 points. We have since learned about injuries to some key eagles players, and the line is moving back the other direction. I opened up a 50% buyback on my Eagles -6 line by taking Vikings +7.5, I now have +CLV in both directions, a middle around 2 very important key numbers, and thus very clearly a +EV spot in this game. FYI, we are rooting for an Eagles 7 pt W.

Buffalo Bills -8.5 (-110, 0.5unit PointsBet)
Right now this lines is still available on DraftKings. The Bills are a -8.5 favorite at (-112) juice, which I am still fine playing for a half unit small bet. This game opened at 8, and the rest of the market has moved to 9 or mostly 9.5. The bet is small because its a market play relative to an unimportant number, as 9 is not very significant in NFL outcomes. However, sharp side is the Bills in a bounce back here. And I am playing them in more ways than one, by also including them in a teaser.

Buffalo Bills -2.5/New England Patriots +8.5 Teaser (-120, 1unit DraftKings)
In addition to playing the straight -8.5, I am also including them in a teaser bet. I call this the AFC East Wong Teaser of the week! Or maybe the Divisional Wong Teaser, idk, I’ve never had to label my bets for content purposes 😂. Anyways, Bills is a market play + perfect wong leg bringing them from -8.5 while taking line movement and bringing them down to the -2.5, crossing through the 3, 6, and 7. Same thing in the other direction, we have the home Patriots, who were likely the best looking 0-1 team, playing an in division game vs the Dolphins where they are a home underdog for the second week in a row.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-110, 1unit Fanduel)
This is a buyOFF of my previous Jaguars +3 ticket. Earlier in the week, I saw lines universally open at 3, and flashes of both 2.5 and 3 on the board, so I grabbed the 3, put some extra exposure on it, and planned to work back off with a -2.5 buyback at some point. This would be smart if it had worked out, with -110s on both sides, and the 3 landing 15-18% of games, and the favorite side landing 67% of the time, I knew I would have positive expected value beating the lines circulating the most important number in NFL betting, the 3.. But… I was wrong! Chris Jones inked a big money deal, and Travis Kelce is already back to limited practice, both very on track to play this week. The splits show 92% of money on the Chiefs at the -3, and at that point i knew the -2.5 would never come back on the board and I was overexposed on my Jaguars position. So i ate the vig, accepted a loss on the juice, and kept some exposure tilted towards the Jaguars in case variance saves the day and I eek out a cover.

Bears +3 (1unit, Fanduel)
I dont actually think I moved the line, but I did place my bet within 30 seconds of this line moving at Fanduel. As of this writing, Bears +3 is available for -112 on DraftKings and is still playable at the same exposure. We have 45% of the bet tickets, but 63% of the bet money on the bears side, meaning the splits are showing this to be a clear public vs sharps game. The public is backing the home Bucs off a road win vs Minnesota, and fading the road Bears off a home loss to the Packers. Makes sense given that consensus thought the Vikings would be better than the Packers, but not me! I was on Packers to win the division, I have been fading Vikings at every turn, and I think myself and the sharps (am i part of that group yet? not sure, let me know in the comments), are not overreacting to Week 1 and are still taking the bears in this spot.

Dallas Cowboys ML (-162, 1unit DraftKings)
This will be the most stale line I ever post on my substack, but it still has a gambling lesson in it. This bet was placed on 9/11/23 at 8:55am (and given out to the discord at that time). Meaning, like my Jets/Cowboys under 46, this was placed before Aaron Rodgers got hurt on MNF 🥲. I call this SAD CLV. I do not wish to be this far ahead of the pricing because the result of another man being injured and headed to surgery. I will likely be waiting until kick off, and taking the Jets ML to at least cover my exposure, and rock with tilted exposure towards the cowboys. Hopefully this can provide some insight on how you can handle situations where you beat a ML by so much, and open up a free win/arbitrage situation. Just tilt the exposure so the original bet is still the most profitable, but cover your losses. That is generally always my approach with injury related CLV. I always note that the people filling in for injured players are professional athletes, who have elite skills, unreal self confidence, and who see an opportunity to better their own position. Dont underestimate the idea of a backup winning a game, especially one with plenty of starts under his belt already.

Still coming this week:
- DFS Value Options Podcast
- DFS Core 4 Players for Cash Games
- Final Betting Card Summary Graphics (and explanations if any more get added before then!)

Lets continue to be the sports books worst enemy 😈😈