My Favorite Game 2 Play

Did we make money on the first day of the NBA playoffs? Yup. Were in the Play In and Playoff black.

Did the FRF System I strongly recommend go 2-0? Yup, Knicks and Nuggets both covered the against the closing number.

Did the key number scale change with more 10+ point results? Yup, 3 out of 4 games Saturday were double digit victories.

Did the losing coach pull the plug before the winning coach pulled their starters? Yup, most evident in Wolves/Suns where the Suns called a timeout, pulled their guys down 20. The Wolves played one more possession before the Wolves called a timeout and subbing out their guys 17 seconds later.

SHEEEEEESH, seems like those 5 Tips for NBA Playoff betting were important 😂😂

It is already my most listened to podcast ever! So thank you to those who have already tuned in. Those who still have not, I will include the link a few more times during the first round. ⬇️

Newly Added Bets:

76ers @ Knicks Under 210 (2u)
I was watching the Knicks Sixers and noticed a few factors which influenced an over outcome in game 1, but I do not feel will last for game 2. First, the Knicks were making a clear effort to push in transition, which I believe Nick Nurse will scheme a defensive adjustment (his speciality). The 3 point efficiency was anomalous- the Knicks shooting 45% from deep, Steph Curry shoots 42.5% on the season. There were 28 made 3s in the game on an unsustainably elite 40% clip. Last, it was officiated by Scott Foster and there were 43 made free throws on a likely unsustainably elite 86% mark. Refs do not do repeat games in the series, so we will not have Foster in Gm2.

When PointsBet opened this at 210, and FanDuel opened at 208.5, it was a clear smasharoooo. It was a bigger opportunity than I expected to present itself. Obviously in that solution, FD took over money and all 210 took under money. It has reached a consensus 209/209.5, but strong handle is on the under in the market, so I expect this keeps dipping back to 208.5 or even lower by tip. This should have room to play back or work off of live. CLV felt very clear and larger than normal in the playoffs, and thus the bet was too.

Cavaliers -5.5 (0.75u)
If you have listened to any Advantage or Buckets podcasts with me pre playoffs, I felt the Cavs playoff woes and late season struggles were completely overblown in this matchup. With game 1 in the books, I was right as the Cavs easily handled the Magic.

The Game 1 line was -4.5 for the entire week during the play in tournament, and then popped to -5.5 pregame. Why was that? Throughout the week there was public money and sentiment to back the Magic, and the early steam made all cavs backers just wait it out (including me). There were moments where it flashed to 4 and back to 4.5. Knowing I was going to want cavs, I simply waited to see if 4 re appeared. It did not, we got close to tip, we got the books to open the limits, and boom- cavs money came in to push it a full point late and close at -5.5. Then the Cavaliers outright covered.

So I know the late and smart action that came in on the Cavs put this at 5.5, and the subsequent win meant it would open and likely go no lower than that number. When I saw 5.5 appear, I knew there was a high degree of certainty there was one sided movement possible. Now at a consensus 6 with maybe one 5.5 remaining, I’m glad I made my move.

Edit: ***I added a late night Wolves -2.5 (1u) and Nuggets -7 (-108, 0.75u) that I will break down next email!! **** this was not added to the email version, i can edit the web version- so i will explain it next email in a full write up. it is tweeted out.

Last thing! Simply reposting the Sunday schedule I sent out yesterday so you have it all in once place and organized!

1PM ET: Heat @ Celtics
- I am on Celtics -12.5 (0.5u), Under 210 (1u)
- I will tweet out any Game 2 Bets after the game

3:30PM ET: Mavericks @ Clippers
- I am on Under 226 (0.75u)
- I will tweet out any Game 2 Bets after the game

7PM ET: Pacers @ Bucks
- I have bet nothing for this game. Bucks or nothing for me, maybe Bucks 1Q ML.
- I will tweet out any Game 2 Bets after the game

9:30PM ET: Pelicans @ Thunder`
- I am on Thunder -8 (1u), Ov 215.5 (0.5u)
- I will send out a substack email after the game with Gm 2 Bets + all the other ones tweeted earlier


PEACE OUTTTTT ✌🏼✌🏼✌🏼