NBA Best Bet Friday November 10th
Only one NBA play today (with a buyback middle), and I was hesitant to even send it because the line moved so much, but I’ll explain the gambling principle and offer another way to attack this spot.
76ers -7 (1u) @ Pistons
Pistons +9.5 (0.5u) vs 76ers
Let me share some game with you on why I played the 76ers -7 within milliseconds of seeing the line. I knew that the opening line was -6.5 and the rest of the board was priced at -8. I also inherently know, and often talk about on the podcast, 7 is the most common outcome in NBA games. So when you can obtain the most important key number before it moves through it, and the entire market is higher, you take it. Blindly. This could have been any NBA team in any travel spot in any matchup spot, I simply do not care. If the opening line is -6.5, one book sits at 7 with the market at 8, put money on it as fast as you can. You can worry about how to handle it later…
Like adding Pistons +9.5 (0.5u) in a buyback. Doing this still fits the same capping principles of stacking together +EV decisions regardless of my feelings about any of these teams. When you gain 2.5 points of CLV on an NBA side bet position, playing back the other number (assuming both -110 sides), will give you above the 5% implied probability of hitting the middle.
It doesn’t matter how you felt about the original bet position. The situation screams a high degree of certainty that you will obtain CLV and can figure it out later on how to best handle the play back.
Another way to play this now once you’ve missed the -7 is to just play the 76ers ML for 1u. Once the line has moved through the key numbers, then focus on playing a ML if you still want it, but do it for 1u only and to take home a smaller win. They are the road favorite and been really hot, so its possibly a straight skip, but this Pistons team likely can’t hang.
If you like this content please check out my podcast, The Advantage Sports Betting Podcast, as I will have a new NFL episode dropping in a few hours breaking down Week 10 Best Bets! Please share my page with a friend who likes sports gambling!