NBA Best Bet Monday December 4th
Quick email today because the games tip off soon! Whether you are watching NFL Monday Night Football or NBA starting the elimination rounds of the In Season Tournament, I got you on the betting information.
I have no bets on the NFL game tonight, and my advice would be to keep it that way if you have a blank slate as well! This line was Jags -8.5 most of the week and is out to -10 now. It seems to be public spot with a larger share of bet volume vs bet handle. We often see this when people are chasing after a losing weekend and take the favorite on MNF. When it moved out from the -8.5, we also lost the ability to include this as a Wong teaser leg (even pairing it with something for next week). In the total, I would say its a sneaky over play at the 40.5, considering 41 is the most common NFL outcome. However, its Jake Browning in a primetime spot which you could/woulda/shoulda been rich just blindly betting these unders so far this season.
The NBA has a nice spot brewing! Back to the well with the Boston Celtics.
I have Boston Celtics -4.5 (2u), and it can be played at -5.5 now for a standard 1u bet. The Celtics are simply the best team in the NBA, and although they are down Porzingis, the key matchup pieces here are Holiday, White, Tatum and Brown’s ability to throw length and different looks at the guard heavy Pacers. It is not just Haliburton, but Heild/Mathurin/Nembhard/Bruce Brown are all undersized wings.
We also have to consider experience here. Not only has Haliburton not played in the postseason, he has never even played in a TNT game! The Celtics have deep playoff experience with tons of primetime game 7s. I would not underestimate this component in what should feel like a postseason environment because of the stakes at the end.
I have a Boston Celtics -4.5 ticket in addition to a Celtics 9:1 to win the NBA In Season Tournament. I am foregoing the decision to hedge, and even adding to my position here. I would have gone a full 3u, my normal max position, on Cs -4.5, but I am including the risk of losing my 1unit on the futures ticket. I am going to record a podcast later today about hedging, and ill send a detailed email on that tomorrow.