NBA Best Bets: Friday 10/27
I love the NBA. My eyes and my bankroll are both very excited to welcome back the association. Through 2 slates I’ve had exposure on, I’m +4.24u and swept DFS contests entered. Here’s to hoping this keeps up, and NFL catches up lol.
Before we get into Friday NBA write ups, two bits of content I think are important to check out!
1. My most recent podcast covered so much strategy behind NBA Gambling. I highly suggest listening if you bet on the NBA! It is deep, detailed, and nuanced based on listener questions that were submitted.
2. I put out a tweet that was a deep dive breakdown into Parlay Math. If you place parlay bets, then this is a must read. I’m like the dentist telling you not to eat sugar while showing you the cavities lol.
Alright, money makin time!
🚨 NBA Best Bets Friday 10/27 🚨
Detroit Pistons @ Charlotte Hornets Un 226.5 (BetMGM, 1u)
Did anyone see the starting lineup the Pistons trotted out last game? A bunch of construction workers the way they were laying those bricks. They need to put shooters around Cade and have him be a 5 out drive and kick distributor who uses his size to get to his spaces, but the roster just lacks that. They are also missing their best shooting in Bojan Bogdonovic, and somehow only played Joe Harris 12 minutes. Not only do they lack shooting, they have Wiseman and Bagley on the bench, so the reserves are going to play slow and inside out. The Pistons had the 24th ranked pace in game 1, and my expectation is that is who they are. The line opened at 226.5, so I got the opening number, and grabbed it when even 225s were popping up on the board. Now there are 224.5s and not even a 226 left. This is cap well done and a strong sharp read.
Boston Celtics -4.5 vs Miami Heat (DraftKings, 1u)
Took this bet about a week ago and spoke about it on a podcast before the NBA season started. I was riding the Celtics in game 1 on the road vs the Knicks and game 2 at home vs Miami. The Knicks one came and went as expected, and now the Celtics face a Miami team that got worse this offseason while the Celtics got better, they are home in the arena Miami took 3 games off them last playoffs, and are certainly going to have this one circled beyond it being a home opener. This line is now out to 8, and I don’t even think I’ll buy it back. I expect a smack down in TD.
Oklahoma City Thunder +5 @ Cleveland Cavaliers (DraftKings, 1u)
When this line was posted I had it instantly circled as a spot I wanted and waited for other books to post. Caesars and PointsBet came online next, both at 4.5, and Caesars quickly went to 4 while DK still had a 5 alive; so I grabbed it right away. At the time, Jarrett Allen had not been officially ruled out for the game, but I knew there are yet to be reports of him ramping up practice, so I knew I had the advantage of an incoming injury news break confirmation. Heres another sneaky angle, I think the Cavaliers home court advantage numbers are a little inflated because historically stars rests in Cleveland, and that wont happen tonight nor in many games moving forward. I still love the Cavs this season, but I feel the number may be inflated in some home favorite games.
Sacramento Kings -2.5 vs Golden State Warriors (DraftKings, 0.33u)
This is a super clear as day sharp side. Opened Kings -1 and jumped relatively immediately out to 2.5. That meant big money came quick on the kings from respected bettors right at open, and likely people who didn’t want to wait and hit multiple books at limit at the same time. I know I am not getting the best of the line, and am steam chasing, so I reduced my exposure but still played into the angle that I like. Warriors travel terribly, Kings are great at home, and backing home teams vs the playoff revenge angle is a fun trend to bet into.