NBA Best Bets Friday December 29th
Quick reminder! You will be getting a holiday giveaway email in a few hours! I put together 11 “Who Am I?” Questions for NBA players and will be giving out prizes to those who get them right. It is both fun and funny, and not deep hoop related trivia. Be sure to look out for that!
I also completed another winning NBA night. It was less than a quarter unit of profit, but if that was an average night I would still be one of the worlds best sports gamblers.
Friday presents a few spots I like… BRING ON TOMORROW!
🏀 NBA Best Bets Friday December 29th 🏀
Nuggets/Thunder Ov 229.5 (2u BetMGM)
Two top tier NBA offenses in a game sub 230?! Sign me up. Thunder are rolling right now and can score at all levels. They are also great defensively but struggle against bigs and have gotten crushed by Jokic in the past (who hasn’t?). This is a no brainer over spot. We are also without Aaron Gordon for the Nuggets who is an elite defender and poor shooter, and will force the Nuggets to play more perimeter and pace oriented.
Bucks -5 (0.75u)
Giannis is probable, Donovan Mitchell is questionable… but the difference is Donovan has apparently been very sick, and giannis has consistently been playing through a calf soreness. With money coming in on the Bucks and the strong -5 number, sign me up. Both of these teams have coaching issues, I fear riding the Bucks against well coached teams. Sadly for JB, that is not the cavs right now.
Suns -14.5 (0.5u)
The opposing Hornets travel to Phoenix on the second leg of a road B2B after taking on the Lakers. They also just played the Clippers a few days prior. So a young team spent the holiday season in Los Angeles, and then gets a back to back away game? You get where I’m going…
In addition we also have the special number of a -15 NBA spread. Going back 25 seasons in NBA gambling, simply blindly betting -15 has been profitable. It is actually the ONLY number we can say that about. Everything else, 14.5, 12.5, 9, 8, 2, 6.5, and more, those all float in the zones where if you bet them blindly you would have a floating win rate but lose money because the vig. With -15, you’d be stacking chips.
I personally do not blindly bet anything. However I can see the opening line was 14.5 at DraftKings and then early splits showed 39% bets and 97% money coming in on Phx, and it moved to -15. I can still grab a -14.5 at Fanduel, so gimme dat.
Spurs ATS + Spurs Spread
I want to get this email out so I am writing this up without specific numbers but I am very likely to grab Spurs +5 and the correlated ML. Spurs play a B2B, both games in Portland, and just won handily tonight. The trick is, Wemby is expected to rest. And, Malcolm Brogdon just stopped playing after 37 minutes tonight and did not come back in. Will he rest? He is older, not part of their future, and a trade candidate. Why play him high minutes on a B2B after pulling him playing very well in the 4th? I want to see early market signals, but I think we are back to the well on the Spurs again.