NBA Best Bets Friday February 23rd
6 games with action!
What a way to kick off post All Star Break NBA š ā¼ļø Four of my five bet positions won, two live middles hit, and I was +7.5u! I was already having a hot February and just doubled it in a day.
What do those viral videos say? Take one or double it and pass it to the next person? Iām the next person getting doubled up š
Lets break down my 6 Best Bets for Friday.
š NBA Best Bets Friday February 23rd š
Cavaliers -3.5 (-108) 1.5u
Cavaliers @ 76ers Un 229 (-108) 1u
Reading the tea leaves on the early line movement, I am going to guess Donovan Mitchell ends up being active for Cleveland, after being a late scratch with an illness on Thursday vs the Magic. The total is creeping up and the Cavaliers are moving out to -4 /-4.5 at most other books. The total is also moving up despite me being on the under. The under had very sharp signals early, and the climb north seems like a reflection of a repricing with injury. I may not end up with the best number, but I do like my position (MGM is currently at 227.5, so its still in good shape).
I ended up playing the Cavaliers for 1u, then tacking on another 0.5 because I understood my positions do have some inverse correlation, so I tilted increased exposure to the side I prefer- which at this time seems to be the clearer side towards gaining CLV.
New Orleans Pelicans -3 (1u)
Heat @ Pelicans Under 223.5 (1u)
This Miami Heat team is a heavy fade, and this Pelicans team is a second half back. The Heat are not fully healthy; Terry Rozier went down as soon as he showed up, Jimmy Butler has been in and out continuously, and Tyler Herro has had an underwhelming season. I expect this to be a slow slog game where the Pels take care of business at home. Betting splits show both positions to be strong sharp spots.
If you look at the pictures you may think- why didnt Mike play the -2.5 instead of the -3? Its not because the difference in vig, its because -2.5 was no longer available when I played the -3. I wish I had!
Bucks @ Wolves Ov 225 (1u)
In the NBA, offense wins out. Here we have one of the leagues best offenses going up against the top defense; and the early market shows the Bucks and the over to be the sharp sides. I am playing the Over 225 at DraftKings because I trust that the Bucks will put up points, but not that this team can compete with such a high level Minnesota team. I also have a position on Wolves Best Record After Break- so while I am not opposed to betting against them I would rather take a different approach in the very first game post break. Also, the spread number is +4, and we know 5-8 are the most common NBA outcomes, so obtaining a Bucks +4 spread is a bit low value.
Spurs @ Lakers Under 238.5 (1u)
I expect Lebron James to return to action Friday against the Spurs and while Lebron is such a key cog to the Lakers offense and efficiency, he is actually a player who influences unders! Lebron dissects and plays a bit slower, he has low 3pt efficiency, he is an amazing defensive rebounder, and not the greatest FT shooter. We also have the upcoming best defender in the NBA in big Vic. I expect a strong defensive effort from both teams on the interior, and low efficiency shooting around it. There will be a lot of 3s, so if they are banging home deep shots, it could fly over.
