NBA Best Bets Friday January 10th
Another winning slate last night!
The last 10 days have resulted in 9 winning slates with a net return of over +13 units. I couldn’t have expected the year to start and end as electric as it has. It’s so much fun to be hot like this. My dad and brother are marathon runners, and even they’ve never run this well. :smile::smile: When I look back at the lone losing day, the difference-maker was simply the Lakers losing outright to the Mavericks, who were without Luka, Kyrie, and Daniel Gafford. Lakers -4 (1.3u) closed at -7 but lost because the Mavericks shot nearly 50% from 3-point range for the entire game. Flip that result, and it’s 10 straight winning days.
The main reason for this success is that the numbers I've been betting into have been so strong. The +CLV (closing line value) rate is over 90% this month through 78 plays. Beating the closing line and staying ahead of the market with good numbers on standard prices should result in consistent profit. The efficiency of January in the NBA has been through the roof, and as a result, these strong positions have been continuously hitting. One of those was Suns -4.5 last night, which closed at -6. A 6-point spread is the most common NBA outcome, and 5 is the second most common push number, given how many games are priced in that range. To hold a -4.5 that closes at -6 is excellent work, and the Suns came through.
Despite betting on the Suns, the highlight from that game belonged to Trae Young. On this alley-oop, Trae fakes a behind-the-back pass to Clint Capela on the drive, pulls the ball back around—allowing Capela time to rim-run—and then Trae lobs it up. Unreal.
Today we are back for another live show at 10am ET (1 hour from when this is sent!). I am joined by professional poker player Drew Johnson to break down the 7 game Friday NBA slate. As of now I have 3 bets on favorites ATS. One of those is Bucks -3 (1u). Despite the Magic returning Paolo Banchero last night, they got crushed by the Wolves at home. Paolo will likely remain on a minutes limit, while Jalen Suggs and both Wagner brothers remain out for Orlando. The Bucks have already listed Dame and Giannis as probable (they are often questionable), so there is incentive to get in early here. I would play this to -4.
Here is the youtube link for the live stream. If you cannot join us at 10am ET, you can always watch it after or check out The Advantage Sports Betting Podcast feed for the audio version of the show.
If you are interested in getting all of the picks in real time in a locked text chat, use this Whop Picks button above to access the store page.
The cost is $100/month. HOWEVER, there is an offer for $50 back in the first month simply for leaving a review on the store page, AND you will receive account credit for an entire free month if we ever do have a losing month. It is as “risk-free” as any package in the sports betting space. The consistency in beating the closing line should lead to consistent results on solid volume.