NBA Best Bets Friday March 29th
When the Celtics were up four at halftime of last nights game against the Hawks, I felt like the gambling gods were going to bless me with another steady Boston second half and a mega middle. They were getting great looks but just not hitting some shots. Instead the Hawks impressively keep the game tight and the backcourt of BogBog (Bogdon Bogdonovic) and Dejounte Murray go lights out late 4Q and in OT. Murray puts up 44 points of 44 shots and walks off saying he played like shit but Kobe would be proud of him. Hilarious line, great game, and I walk away knowing my process was flawless but tonight wasn’t a lottery type night.
I end up -2.6units on the night because I was tilted in the Cs direction (where my bigger +CLV was). I can use results based hindsight to say oh well we got lucky that the line locked and no one tailed because it ended up losing. But I can also say I still hope everyone understands the process and value obtained by that position and can still look for similar discrepancies in the future.
🏀 NBA Best Bets Friday March 29th 🏀
IND Pacers -2 (-110, BetRivers, 2.5u)
LA Lakers +3.5 (-110, Caesars, 1u)
The late season Pacers are becoming my early season Knicks, the team that just hands me bad beat after bad beat. But I will never do the “permanent dont bet list.” In fact, the opposite, I am right back to the Pacers well after they got smacked in the mouth by the Bulls last game. The Pacers return home and early reports are Lebron and AD both may miss. BetRivers closed the line shortly after and it is still closed, and -3/-3.5 elsewhere. I knew this obviously has strong playback value if the studs miss, and only a little value now by opening an instant middle. So I did both, played the 2.5u on the -2, opened 1u back of middle room already on the +3.5, and kept 1.5u of Pacers -2 exposure floating and waiting to see what happens next.
PHX Suns @ OKC Thunder Un 230 (-108, BetRivers, 3u)
The Thunder rested SGA on the second leg of a back to back on Wednesday against the Houston Rockets. Coach Mark Daigneault said he wasn’t 100% and was definitely banged up. The market was uncertain if it would linger or just be a schedule related rest spot with the back to back against a very physical Houston team. The Thunder put SGA back on the injury list as doubtful, and the lines reacted quickly. I found the news and the highest over on the board and played it down. The Thunder are obviously not the same offense without their superstar, and this will have eventual playback room. I have not done it yet with multiple books at 227 right now.
DAL Mavericks @ SAC Kings Ov 228.5 (-112, DraftKings, 1u)
The Mavs and Kings are playing the baseball series, 2 games in 3 days series with all of it in Sacramento. No travel, no rest, and if Luka goes from questionable to active, no injuries. In these situations, I always look for overreactions in the two game lines. The first game total opened 236.5, dropped to 232.5, and still went under. With this reopening at 228.5, thats an overreaction and should increase, certainly once Luka is activated.
