NBA Best Bets Friday March 8th
15 straight +CLV bets, and 4 straight losing nights. The bad luck streak continues. I went back and did some math to rationalize my frustration lol. I calculated my expected hit rate for each bet, weighted it to my unit exposure, and subtracted my implied probability to create a EV for the day. Then I took the opposite side of my percentage breakdown (because I had +chance at positive day, so I needed to know my sub 50% chances of having a losing day). And then I multiplied each day together to understand the chances of doing these things consecutively.
Having this bad of luck is just north of a 3% chance.
When you study the betting market and take action for 12 years like I have, these moments are bound to happen. Its nothing more than some foooooking terrible luck, but its also very frustrating… It’s equivalent to flipping a coin and getting heads 5x in a row. If you flip hundreds of times, you’ll get 5 heads in a row at times.
Also- I do not feel a bad run is a reason to take time away. I am still dominating the closing numbers, and we have a limited time in the NBA season to take action on the games I have the strongest edge. I cant get bogged down by past sample size, I need to continue to put myself in those +EV situations and bring in income while we can.
Some stats to realize from a 30,000 foot view it ain’t that bad:
Febraury: +21u
2023-24 Season: +67u
L4 Days: -11u……. on 15 straight +CLV bets!! UGH. its annoying cuz that easssssily should be like +5-8u
Change nothing but the results- I just hope it starts soon!
🏀 NBA Best Bets Thursday March 7th 🏀
Minnesota Timberwolves -1 (3u)
Normally I do not bet the numbers in the 1s hard, but this is another clear as day +CLV position incoming, Anthony Edwards is coming off a 44 point win where his defense was the highlight. The Wolves have experience playing without KAT and have done just fine- whereas the Cavs are decimated. No Donovan Mitchell, No Evan Mobley, No Max Strus. It will be Darius Garland trying to take on ant and Jaden McDaniels on the perimeter- thats a nightmare for him. And Jarrett Allen has Rudy to deal with. The Wolves are on the second leg of a road B2B, so I kept it to 3u despite loving the spot.
As of now this is it! I am going to check back in with the numbers in a few hours- but nothing stands out as intriguing to me and I wanted to get this out while Wolves -1 still lasts at numerous books Maybe Magic +1.5, check my twitter handle for updates. If there are multiple, I can blast out another email.