NBA Best Bets Friday May 17th
Game 6 Pacers/Knicks, Game 7 Nugs/Wolves
I’m gonna miss my dear friend, NBA Playoffs Round 2. Personally I think it’s the perfect blend of competitiveness within the series’ and basically two games every night. Content Volume + Engagement is at its apex… Also, my betting portfolio hit its apex during round 2. I went all but one day with winning numbers, and a cumulative +7.82units through R2 thus far.
🍻🍻 Here’s to hoping it continues this way 🍻🍻
I have some newly added Best Bets, as well as Buckets Live show from last night with myself and Matt Moore reacting to Game 6 Nuggets Wolves, opening lines for Game 7, hedging thoughts, and looking at the schedule for the next round.
New Best Bets:
Nuggets -4.5 (1u)
Nuggets/Wolves Un 199.5 (1u)
There aint much to get shocked over here. Give me the defender champs, the home team, the in Denver under wagon, the game 7 under wagon, the best player in the series, the coach who has been there before, and the players with experience. The wolves have been incredibly impressive thus far, and this is not a discredit to them, but rather just a time to back the Nuggets at home, one of the safest positions of the last few years. Its a good number at -4.5. I originally bet 1u under, 0.75u spread, but I added 0.25u to the -4.5 at BetMGM when it moved back. Below are my DK slips
Hedges Initiated:
NY Knicks Series -245 (to win 2x original bet amount on Pacers 500:1)
Dallas Mavs Series -360 (to return investment on OKC 120:1)
I talked about this with Matt on Buckets Live, but I have been feeling it is time to hedge and his opinion helped confirm it for me. We discussed how starting the hedging process this early means you are ready to toss away the huge longshot value you have on the back end, but you will have to “martingale” hedges in futures rounds and exponentially recoup an investment. However, with the Thunder and Pacers on the brink and both needed two consecutive wins, one game on the road, it becomes really tough. It’s time to hedge.
I am also rewording the units for my futures. In the doc I have 0.5u Pacers and 3u Thunder, but that was last June and a lot has changed since then, including my risk tolerance. To call the OKC ticket I have 3units still is simply untrue, but it doesn’t matter because hedging isnt unit based anyways, its a ratio of investment/potential profit.
