NBA Best Bets Friday November 17th

Today I crossed +100units on picks given out on my twitter! An achievement that makes me proud and still very motivated to keep going. Hopefully I’ll get some time to put together some stats and reflections about the process.

Here are four NBA Best Bets for Friday November 17th. All were placed at DraftKings.

Hawks +1 (0.75u)
Smallest play of the board will go to Hawks +1. I have really enjoyed backing the Hawks early this season, and feel they match up very well against the 76ers. The smaller unit is twofold, the relative insignificance of the number, and the lower degree of certainty of line movement to come because the questionable injury designation for Embiid.

Kings -6.5 (1.5u)
Kings/Spurs Over 235.5 (1.5u)
Lot of fun capping here. First, lets talk correlated bets! Overs and Favorites ATS are a general correlation because if there is more scoring, then there are more outcome combinations for the favorite to cover the spread. Second, lets remember 7 is the most common outcomes in NBA games, so obtaining the 6.5 before it moves to or through the 7 is the most valuable spot of CLV. Third is matchup based thoughts, these Kings are rolling, the Spurs are scoring and getting blown out. Perfect combo to back the favorite here. I think this is a really strong spot, but also don’t want to overexpose myself. So it is a 3u max play between the bets.

Bucks/Hornets Ov 234.5 (2u)
This is me grabbing an opening number while there are spots already 1.5 points different with 236s on the total, so give me an Over 234.5.I would absolutely slam this line with 10u knowing it was going to be a nice 7u playback if I had more certainty around Giannis status. He missed last game, but he is generally an ironman and I would expect him to play and push the pace. I also like the Bucks -6.5, but its a road favorite with the uncertainty around Giannis so I would rather play the over, it feels less volatile.

Expect an NFL podcast and picks email coming tomorrow! Happy Friday!