NBA Best Bets Friday November 3rd
My Friday night plans are set. I have massive bets on this NBA slate. Let’s dive in.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers Ov 222.5 (10u)
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers Uv 225.5 (7u)
I’m starting with this one not only because its first tip of the night, but it also helps explain a lot of gambling principles. I noticed two books post had these lines 3 points apart at the same time. I felt that alone presented value worth placing simply for the middle. I checked the rest of the market, and saw every other book at 225 or 225.5, so I knew I to tilt my exposure towards the Ov 222.5. I also typically work with a 3unit max bet, so my decision was to tilt my exposure towards roughly 3u win on the over side. I understand because the amount I am betting, relative to my normal wagers, I can lose up to 4 units on this bet because the vig loss alone on the 10u side will cost me another unit. Please say a prayer for me that this line closes in between them and the book makers stick the landing.
Chicago Bulls -3.5 (1u)
There is already such public sentiment against the Bulls because they had a players only meeting so quickly into the season. I think thats overblown; because they have a veteran and highly respected coach in Billy Donovan, and veteran leaders on the team. They also have organizationally shown a commitment towards winning. The combination of public sentiment against, but no meaningful evidence to it, makes me think that when I see the Bulls appearing as the sharp side, sign me up to ride with them. The United Center residents open as a -3 favorite, and I grabbed a -3.5 while every other book stood at 4 or 4.5. I am still ok playing those for less exposure, we know the 4 is important but not as valuable as the 5/6/7/8, so grab it before it gets into intentional foul territory.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Portland Trail Blazers Under 219.5 (6u)
This is another position where I anticipate opening a middle by playing an over after inevitable movement occurs. However, at the time I placed this bet, MGM had it at 219.5 while the rest of the board was 218.5 or 218, so I did not go for the double whammy right away, I had less information about just how far the line would move, so I reduced my bet size…. to only 2x my normal max wager lol. I am hoping for 216s and boom, prob 4u the other way incoming.
Denver Nuggets TBD
Doing a bet writeup for a bet that does not exist… yet. It 100% will. The spread opened -5, its pushed out to -7, and I think the early indicator is Chief Hélà will still be out for Dallas. I am waiting for indication either direction on Hélà, like shoot around reports a few hours pre game. If he is not shooting, I play it right away before it climbs further. If Kyrie (did you know who I was talking about?) does get some shots up, then the number will come back down and I will still play it. The reason for waiting is the chance to get a much better number, with minimal risk of getting something worse. Timing the market appropriately. It will likely be a 0.5u spread, 1u ML combo or something on the Denver side. Maybe all ML if its still at 7.
Here you can see BetMGM being too slow!
