NBA Best Bets Monday December 11th
What a weekend!!!
Back to back winning NFL weeks and an absurdly dominant few days betting the NBA. Lets keep the good times rolling! Here are my Best Bets for Mondays high volume, 13 game, NBA return to action slate.
Detroit Pistons +7 (0.5u)
This game may present the strongest handicapping situation, but is my smallest position. The +7 represents getting a great underdog number, as 7/5/6 and the 3 most common NBA outcomes and all on your side of the line. There is also Reverse Line Movement happening, where the Pacers are taking 80%+ of both the bets and the handle, but yet the line is moving towards the Pistons. This is a classic let down spot for the Pacers after Vegas, vs a very hungry Pistons team searching for their first win in a month+. While this is a strong handicap, its a half unit play because the Pistons suck.
Miami Heat -3.5 (1u)
Bam, and Tyler Herro are out and already confirmed at the time this game was priced, so those injuries do not effect my handicap. On the Hornets side, Lamelo is getting back to practice but is likely still out as well. We are seeing 70% bets and 85% handle on the Heat, and the line is moving in correspondence with the money coming in. For that reason, we can grab a Heat -3.5/4 and watch this line likely tick to 5-6ish by tip off. Simply having that CLV relative to an NBA key number will give you a +EV situation.
Denver Nuggets -2.5 (1u)
This is a cap which has a lot more upside than downside. We have the Nuggets with Murray probable and no one else on the injury report. For the Hawks, Trae Young missed last game with an illness and is still questionable for this one. While Trae has had a few days off because the IST created a weekend off for most teams, and I do expect him to play, it feels like if Trae plays this line sticks at -2.5 or at worst goes to -2. If Trae plays, based on the current handle, it still may go out to -4. Finally, if Trae does miss time still being sick, this line moves hard towards Nuggets and invites a lot of opportuntity. While bets will either 100% win or lose based on the final score, I do not like that approach. I see this as high ceiling with a stable floor as well.